TN 295 



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No. 9084 




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JC} 9084 



Bureau of Mines Information Circular/1986 



Potash Availability- 
Market Economy Countries 

A Minerals Availability Appraisal 



> 



By D. E. Sullivan and N. Michael 




J 



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 



Information Circular 9084 



Potash Availability- 
Market Economy Countries 

A Minerals Availability Appraisal 

By D. E. Sullivan and N. Michael 




UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 
Donald Paul Hodel, Secretary 

BUREAU OF MINES 
Robert C. Horton, Director 







no 



i 



Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data 



Sullivan, Daniel E. 

Potash availability— market economy countries. 

(Information circular/United States Department 
of the Interior, Bureau of Mines; 9084) 

Bibliography: p. 24. 

Supt. of Docs, no.: I 28.27: 9084. 

1. Potash industry and trade. 2. Potash deposits. 3. Market surveys. I. Michael, N. 
(Nicholas) II. Title. III. Series: Information circular (United States. Bureau of Mines) ; 
9084. 

-TN295,U4 (HD9660.P69) 622 s (338.2 7636) 86-600058 



PREFACE 



The Bureau of Mines is assessing the worldwide availability of selected minerals 
of economic significance, most of which are also critical minerals. The Bureau iden- 
tifies, collects, compiles, and evaluates information on producing, developing, and ex- 
plored deposits, and on mineral processing plants worldwide. Objectives are to classify 
both domestic and foreign resources, to identify by cost evaluation those demonstrated 
resources that are reserves, and to prepare analyses of mineral availability. 

This report is one of a continuing series of reports that analyze the availability of 
minerals from domestic and foreign sources. Questions about, or comments on, these 
reports should be addressed to Chief, Division of Minerals Availability, Bureau of Mines, 
2401 E St., NW.. Washington, DC 20241. 



Ill 



CONTENTS 



Page 

Preface i 

Abstract 1 

Introduction 2 

World potash industry 2 

Production 2 

Exports, imports, and consumption 4 

Evaluation methodology- 6 

Resources 7 

Geology 10 

Mining and processing of potash 10 

Mining 10 

Conventional underground mining methods ... 10 

Room and pillar 11 

Sublevel stoping 11 

Longwall caving 11 

Cut-and-fill stoping 11 

Solution mining 11 

Brine recovery 12 

Beneficiation 12 

Flotation 12 

Crystallization 13 

Drying and sizing 13 



Page 

Potash deposit production costs 13 

Costing methodology 13 

Operating costs 14 

Capital costs 15 

Potash concentrate availability 15 

Economic evaluation methodology 15 

Total availability 17 

Muriate of potash 17 

Potassium sulfate 19 

Potassium-magnesium sulfate 19 

Miscellaneous potash products 20 

Annual availability 20 

Muriate of potash 20 

Potassium sulfate 22 

Potassium-magnesium sulfate 22 

Conclusions 22 

References 24 

Appendix.— Geology of potash deposits evaluated . 25 



ILLUSTRATIONS 



1 1983 world production of potash. 26.678 million mt K 2 equivalents 3 

2. U.S. imports for consumption of muriate of potash, by country of origin, for selected years 6 

3. Flow chan of minerals availability evaluation process 7 

4 Mineral resource classification categories 7 

5. Demonstrated in situ potash resources in market economy countries, 11.7 billion mt K 2 

equivalents. 1984 9 

6. Simplified flotation circuit 12 

7. Simplified crystallization circuit 13 

8. Estimated potentially recoverable muriate of potash, 60 pet K 2 0, associated with analyzed deposits 17 

9. Muriate potentially recoverable from mines and deposits in market economy countries 18 

10. Muriate potentially recoverable from producing mines and nonproducing deposits in Canada 18 

11. Muriate potentially recoverable from mines and deposits in Canada, related to both f.o.b. mill costs and to 

costs including transportation 18 

12 Muriate potentially recoverable from mines and deposits in the United States, related to both f.o.b. mill costs 

and to costs including transportation 19 

13. Potential annual production of muriate from producing mines in market economy countries at various cost levels 20 

14. Potential annual production of muriate from nonproducing mines in market economy countries at various cost 

levels 20 

15. Potential annual production of muriate from producing mines in Canada at various cost levels 21 

16 Potential annual production of muriate from nonproducing mines in Canada at various cost levels 21 

17. Potential annual production of muriate from producing mines in Europe and in the Dead Sea area at various 

cost levels 21 

18. Potential annual production of muriate from producing mines in the United States at various cost levels . 22 
19 Potential annual production of potassium sulfate from producing mines in market economy countries .... 22 

Columnar section showing Middle Devonian evaporite cycles 26 

A-2 Diagrammatic cross section through the Prairie Evaporite Formation in Saskatchewan and Manitoba .... 27 

A-3 Isopach map of the Prairie Evaporite Formation in the Elk Point Basin 28 

A-4 Location map. potash mines in Saskatchewan 29 



IV 



TABLES 

Page 

1. Naturally occurring potassium minerals considered in this analysis 2 

2. Marketable products containing potassium included in this analysis 2 

3. World production of marketable potash 3 

4. Potential products of potash mines and deposits in the United States in 1982 3 

5. Potassium products from producing mines in the Federal Republic of Germany 4 

6. Aggregated world potash trade, 1983 4 

7. U.S. exports of potash, by country, 1983 5 

8. U.S. imports for consumption of muriate of potash, by country of origin 5 

9. U.S. imports for consumption of potassium sulfate, by country 6 

10. U.S. production, sales, exports, imports, and apparent consumption of potash 6 

11. Potash mines and deposits included in this study, 1982 8 

12. Demonstrated potash resources associated with deposits included in this analysis, as of January 1984 .... 10 

13. In situ grade and mine recovery for potash mines using conventional underground methods, by area 11 

14. Weighted average mill recovery for mills beneficiating potash ore and proposed recovery rates for nonproducing 

mills, by area 12 

15. Mine and mill operating costs per metric ton ore for selected underground potassium muriate mines and deposits 14 

16. Operating costs per metric ton potassium muriate product for selected underground mines and deposits . . 14 

17. Market prices per metric ton for selected potassium products and related minerals for January 1984, f.o.b. mill 16 

18. Distribution of revenues received by potash operations at January 1984 market prices 16 

19. Total estimated recoverable muriate of potash, 60 pet K 2 0, in 1984 17 

20. Potentially recoverable muriate per selected cost ranges for mines located in Europe or the Dead Sea area 19 

21. Total estimated recoverable sulfate of potash, K 2 S0 4 19 

A-l. Dissolved solids in the Great Salt Lake, 1979 25 

A-2. Soluble portion of Bonneville Salt Flats sediments, 1979 25 

A-3. Estimated quantities of solids in the Dead Sea 30 





UNIT OF MEASURE ABREVIATIONS USED IN THIS REPORT 


h 


hour pet 


percent 


kg/L 


kilogram per liter psi 


pound per square inch 


km 


kilometer mt 


metric ton 


km 2 


square kilometer mt/yr 


metric ton per year 


m 


meter yr 


year 



POTASH AVAILABILITY— MARKET ECONOMY COUNTRIES 
A Minerals Availability Appraisal 

By D. E. Sullivan 1 and N. Michael 2 



ABSTRACT 



The Bureau of Mines investigated the availability of potash from 68 mines and 
deposits in 12 market economy countries (MEC's) containing, at the demonstrated 
resource level, approximately 11.7 billion metric tons (mt) of potash in assay terms of 
contained K 2 0; K 2 as used by industry as a standard of comparison for the different 
forms of potash. These resources include almost 190 million mt in the United States, 
9.63 billion mt in Canada, approximately 430 million mt in Western Europe (France, 
Federal Republic of Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom), 1.24 billion mt 
in the Middle East (Israel and Jordan) and over 220 million mt in other countries (Brazil, 
Chile, and the Congo). 

This analysis has determined that future production of potash in MEC's will most 
likely continue to be from the large resources associated with producing operations in 
Canada. Based solely on the demonstrated resources included in this study, potash min- 
ing in the United States would decline while overseas production from MEC's can con- 
tinue into the next century at near current production levels. However, timely develop- 
ment of new or inferred resources would offset any such decline. 

Producing mines in Canada have the resources to increase and maintain increased 
production well into the next century. For U.S. potash users, Canada is a long-term 
stable and secure source. 

'Industry economist. 

■Mining engineer 'now graduate student at Willamette University, Salem. OR). 
Bureau of Mines. Minerals Availability Field Office. Denver. CO. 



INTRODUCTION 



The purpose of this study is to evaluate resources of 
potash in market economy countries (MEC's) and to assess 
the related cost of production to recover these resources. 
Potash is not considered a strategic and critical mineral, 
but it is essential in the production of food and agricultural 
products, a vital concern of the United States. This study 
presents an evaluation of significant potash deposits on a 
geographic basis, including the costs to transport products 
of these deposits to markets. 

Potassium, along with phosphorus and nitrogen, is an 
essential nutrient for plant growth and is used extensively 
in fertilizers (I). 3 The principal source of potassium is mined 
potash. Potash is the term used for a variety of naturally 
occurring potassium-bearing minerals and mineral products 
containing potassium. Sylvite, which is potassium chloride 
(KC1) is the most important potassium mineral. The prod- 
uct form of potassium chloride is referred to as muriate of 
potash. Sylvinite, a mixture of sylvite and halite (NaCl), 
is commercially the most important naturally occurring 
potassium ore because of its relatively high potassium con- 
tent and ease of beneficiation. Additional potassium 
minerals that are mined include langbeinite in the United 
States, and kainite in Italy. Other naturally occurring 
potassium minerals include carnallite and polyhalite. Im- 
portant naturally occurring potassium minerals and their 
chemical compositions are shown in table 1. 

Table 1. — Naturally occurring potassium minerals considered 
in this analysis (1-2) 



Table 2.— Marketable products containing 
potassium included in this analysis (?) 



Mineral 



Chemical 
composition 



Location of 
mining 1 



Sylvite KCI United States, Canada, 

Federal Republic of 
Germany, France, Spain, 
United Kingdom. 

Carnallite . . . KCI MgCI 2 6H 2 None. 

Kainite KCI MgSO„ 3H 2 Italy. 

Polyhalite . . . K 2 S0 4 MgS0 4 2CaS0 4 2H 2 None. 

Langbeinite . K 2 S0 4 2MgSO„ United States. 

Brines Various United States, Israel, 

Jordan. 

1 Market economy countries. 

The term K 2 is used by industry as a standard of com- 
parison for the different forms of potash. The grade of potash 
products is measured in terms of the percent K 2 contained, 
although the products are not in the form of K 2 0; K 2 best 
represents the potassium value that is used by plants as 
a fertilizer. Potash products are also differentiated into 
types based on grain size. The common sizes are granular, 
coarse, standard, and special standard. The value follows 
this size differentiation with granular sized potash gen- 
erally having the highest worth. 

Table 2 identifies the potash products that were as- 
sumed to be marketable at operations analyzed in this 
study. The most important potash products include 
potassium chloride, potassium sulfate, and potassium- 



Potash 
product 



Chemical 
composition 



Grade, 
pet K 2 



Annual 
K 2 capacity, pet 



Muriate KCI 



60-62 



Sulfate K 2 S0 4 50-54 



90 

5 



K 2 Mg 2 (S0 4 ) 3 



22 



Potassium magnesium 
sulfate. 

Manure salts KCI . 19 

Korn kali ( 1 ) 40 

Patent kali ( 2 ) 32 5 

Kali magnesia ( 1 ) 28 

Thomas kali ( 1 ) 1 8-20 

Raw salts (') 19 

Magnesia kainite ( 1 ) 12 

'Contains KCI and sometimes other materials including magnesium and 
phosphorus. 
2 Contains K 2 S0 4 and magnesium. 



magnesium sulfate. Potassium chloride accounts for 90 pet 
of the annual capacity in terms of K 2 equivalents of pro- 
ducing operations included in this study, potassium sulfate 
capacity accounts for 5 pet, and other potash products ac- 
count for the remaining 5 pet. Most operations included in 
this study produced only one of these products; the opera- 
tions in the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) produced 
the largest variety of potash products. Canada, tbe second 
largest producer of potash in the world after the U.S.S.R., 
produces only muriate and exports over 90 pet of its potash 
production. 

In 1983, the United States imported one-sixth of world 
potash production, in terms of K 2 0; more potash than any 
other country in the world. The United States consumed 
more than 20 pet of world production during 1983. About 
93 pet of potash consumption in the United States is for 
agricultural fertilizer, 95 pet of which is in the form of 
potassium muriate (3). Potassium sulfate or other potassium 
fertilizers are used in situations where the chloride in 
muriate is not wanted such as the tobacco, grape, and citrus 
industries. 

The United States imported three-fourths of its apparent 
consumption in 1982 and exported nearly one-third of its 
own production. During 1982, 90 pet of potash imported by 
the United States was from Saskatchewan, Canada. Among 
the reasons potash is both imported and exported are 
transportation costs and product types. Producers in the 
United States have a transportation advantage when ship- 
ping to countries of Central and South America. The United 
States exports much more potassium sulfate than it imports. 

Domestic deposits were evaluated by personnel of the 
Bureau's Field Operation Centers and foreign data collec- 
tion and cost estimation were performed under contract by 
Jacobs Engineering Group, Inc., Lakeland, FL; personnel 
of the Bureau's Minerals Availability Field Office, Denver, 
CO, evaluated the data and performed the economic evalua- 
tion analyses. 



WORLD POTASH INDUSTRY 



PRODUCTION 



Potash was produced in 13 countries during 1983 (see 
table 3 and figure 1). The largest output was 9.3 million 



3 Italic numbers in parentheses refer to items in the list of references 
preceding the appendix at the end of this report. 



mt K 2 equivalent produced in the U.S.S.R. This was 
almost 35 pet of world production in 1983, an increase from 
27 pet of world production in 1972 and 15 pet in 1962. 
Canada produced about 6.2 million mt K 2 equivalent in 
1983, which was over 23 pet of world production, down from 
its 27 pet in 1980, but an increase from its share of 17 pet 



Table 3.— World production of marketable potash (4. 8), 
thousand metric tons of K 2 equivalent 



1972 



1980 



1982? 1983 e 



136 
2.225 


3.495 
2,412 


7.532 
2.239 


5.309 
1.784 


6.203 
1 1.429 


2.361 


5.907 


9.771 


7.093 


7,632 


18 


24 


25 


22 


22 



1.760 1.894 1.701 1.900 



2.845 


2.737 


2.057 


2.100 


216 


156 


146 


140 


638 


658 


692 


'657 





321 


401 


'302 



Region and country 1962 

Market economy countries: 
North America 
Canada (sales) 
United States 
Total. North America 
South America: Chile 

Western Europe: 

France 1 .722 
Germany. Federal 

Republic of 1 .940 

Italy 154 

Spam 235 

United Kingdom 

Total. Western Europe 

Middle East 
Israel 
Jordan 

Total. Middle East 
Africa: Congo 

Total market economy 
countries 



Centrally planned economy 
courr 

China 281 12 26 25 
German Democratic 

Republic 1.752 2.458 3.422 3.434 3.430 

USSR 1.497 5.433 8,064 8.079 9.300 

Total, centrally planned 
economy countries 3.249 8.172 11.498 11.539 12.755 

Grand total 9.770 20.410 27.857 24.664 26.678 

-Estimated "Preliminary 'Reported 



4.051 


5.459 


5.766 


4.997 


5.099 


91 



561 



797 




1.004 
9 


1.000 
170 


91 


561 


797 


1.013 


1.170 





287 











6.521 


12.238 


16.357 


13.125 


13.923 



Un ifed Stores 
5 pet 




Figure 1. — 1983 world production of potash. 26.678 million mt 
K 2 equivalents. 



in 1972 and a large increase from the 1 pet in 1962. The 
Democratic Republic of Germany (GDR), which with the 
U.S.S.R. produced over 99 pet of the potash produced in cen- 
trally planned economy countries, produced 3.4 million mt 
K 2 equivalent in 1983, which was almost 13 pet of world 
production, about the same share that they produced in 
1972, but down from 18 pet produced during 1962. The 
Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) produced 2.1 million 
mt K 2 equivalent, which was almost 8 pet of world pro- 
duction during 1983, down from the 14 pet of world produc- 
tion they produced during 1972 and 20 pet during 1962. The 
United States produced over 1.4 million mt K 2 equivalent 
during 1983 which was over 5 pet of world production. The 
U.S. production was 8 pet of world production in 1980, 12 
pet during 1972, and 23 pet during 1962. France produced 
1.9 million mt during 1983 which was over 7 pet of world 
production; this was down from 9 pet of world production 
during 1972 and 18 pet during 1962. The production in cen- 
trally planned economy countries, particular the U.S.S.R., 
has grown much faster than the production in market 
economy countries. Market economy countries produced 67 
pet of world output during 1962; declining to 60 pet during 
1972 and 52 pet during 1983. 

The 10 mines that produced potassium muriate in 
Canada during 1983 were all located in Saskatchewan Prov- 
ince. They were operated by six companies, Cominco Ltd., 
International Minerals & Chemical Corp. (Canada) Ltd. 
(IMCC), Noranda Mines Ltd., PPG Industries Canada Ltd., 
Potash Co. of America (PCA), and Potash Corp. of Sas- 
katchewan (PCS). Two mines are being developed in New 
Brunswick, one by Denison Potcan Potash Co. and the other 
by PCA. Numerous other prospects in Saskatchewan and 
one in Manitoba have been explored. 

Products of potash operations or proposed operations in 
the United States are shown in table 4. Eleven of these min- 
ing operations produced potash in the United States dur- 
ing 1982 (4). These operations produced muriate of potash 
from sylvinite ore, potassium-magnesium sulfate from lang- 
beinite ore, and sulfate of potash from a combination of 

Table 4.— Potential products of potash mines and deposits in 
the United States in 1982 

Potassium- 
Property name, by State Muriate magnesium Sulfate Other' 

sulfate 
California: 2 

Salton Sea 3 X X X 

Searles Lake X X X 

New Mexico: 

AMAX Chemical X 

Hecla-Day Potash Lease 3 X X X 

Hobbs Potash, Kerr-McGee X 

Hodges Potash Properly 3 X X 

IMC X X X 

Mississippi Chemical Mine X 

Nash Draw, Duval X 

National Potash Co X 

Noranda Prospect 3 X 

Potash Co. of America X X 

Utah: 
Bonneville (Wendover) X X 

Cane Creek, Texasgulf, Inc. X 

Little Mountain, GSL X X 

'Includes manure salt, table salt, sodium sulfate, and magnesium chloride. 
2 These deposits produce or would produce potash as a minor byproduct 
and are not included in the availability analysis 
3 Proposed mine. 



sylvinite and langbeinite ores at IMC, kainite at GSL, and 
complex brines at Searles Lake. Seven of these are 
underground producing operations located in New Mexico. 
They are the AMAX Chemical mine, Hobbs Potash facili- 
ty formerly owned by Kerr-McKee and now owned by Ver- 
tac, the IMC mine, the Nash Draw Mine owned by Duval 
Corp., the PC A mine, the Mississippi Chemical Mine, and 
the National Potash Co. mine. The Mississippi Chemical 
Mine has been shut down since January 1983 because of 
low worldwide demand and prices for potash. The National 
Potash Co. mine has been shut down since February 1982. 

Three companies produced potash in Utah during 1982. 
Kaiser Chemicals of Kaiser Aluminum and Chemical Corp., 
produced muriate of potash from natural near surface brines 
at the west end of the Bonneville Salt Flats near Wendover; 
Texasgulf, Inc., using solution mining methods produced 
muriate of potash from its Cane Creek operation near Moab, 
that once was a conventional underground mine; and the 
Little Mountain Potash Operation of Great Salt Lake 
Minerals and Chemical Co. (GSL) produced sulfate of 
potash, sodium chloride, sodium sulfate, and magnesium 
chloride from the Great Salt Lake. 

The only potash producing operation in California is the 
Kerr-McGee Chemical operation at Searles Lake. It pro- 
duces muriate and sulfate of potash as byproducts of the 
soda ash (Na 2 C0 3 ), borax (Na 2 B 4 7 ), and salt cake (Na 2 S0 4 ) 
operations. The operations consist of three chemical plants, 
the Trona, the Argus, and the Westend plant. Potash is pro- 
duced only at the Trona plant. California also has a brine 
deposit at the Salton Sea which could produce potash as a 
byproduct. Neither deposit in California was included in 
the availability analysis because the production of potash, 
although equivalent to some other U.S. mines, is a 
byproduct and is only a small part of the output. 

When economic conditions are poor, producers take 
various measures to cut costs so they can continue to 
operate. Between 1982 and 1984, because of the poor 
economic climate for potash in the United States, several 
mines have taken extended vacations by temporarily clos- 
ing for several months or have operated at less than full 
capacity for extended periods of time. The National Potash 
Co. mine and the Mississippi Chemical Mine have not been 
able to reduce costs sufficiently and have been forced to shut 
down for economic reasons. 

Eight operations included in this study produced 
muriate of potash and various other potassium and other 
minerals from mines located in the Federal Republic of Ger- 
man (FRG). They were all owned and operated by one com- 
pany, Kali und Salz AG (K&S). Table 5 shows the variety 
of potassium products that are produced by these mines. 



Table 5.— Potassium products from producing mines in the 
Federal Republic of Germany (2) 



Producing 
mines 1 



1-8. 
2-3, 6. 
3, 6. 
2, 8. 
1, 3, 6 



Product * 2 °', 

wt pet 

Muriate 60-62 

50 
40 

Sulfate 50-54 

Kom Kali 40 

Patent Kali 32 

Kali magnesia 28 

Thomas Kali 18-20 

Raw salts 19 

Magnesia kainit 12 

1 Producing mines: 
1 — Bergmannssegen-Hugo 5 — Salzdetfurth 
2— -Hattorf 6— Siegfried-Giesen 

3— Neuhof-Eilers 7— Sigmundshall 

4 — Niedersachsen-Riedel 8 — Wintershall 



Four mines produced muriate of potash in Spain dur- 
ing 1982. Two mines were operated by Union Explosivos 
Rio Tinto S.A., one by Potasas de Navarra S.A., and one 
by Minas de Potasas de Suria S.A. 

Three mines produced muriate of potash in France. They 
were all owned by Mines de Potasse d' Alsace. 

Three mines produced sulfate of potash in Italy. Two 
were owned by Industria Sali Potassici e Affini (ISPEA) and 
one by Societa per L'Industria del Salgemma S.p.A. (EM- 
SAMS). All Italian potash production is located in Sicily. 

One operation in Jordan utilizes the brines of the Dead 
Sea to produce muriate of potash. It is owned by the Arab 
Potash Co. 

The Dead Sea Works in Israel, majority owned by the 
Government of Israel, also exploits the brine of the Dead 
Sea to produce muriate of potash and other minerals. 

One facility in the United Kingdom produces muriate 
of potash from an underground mine. It is owned and 
operated by Cleveland Potash Ltd. 

Brazil has two potash deposits that are being developed 
by Petrobras Mineracao S.A. Corfo in Chile is considering 
the development of a brine operation. The Government- 
owned Holle Mine in the People's Republic of the Congo 
has produced potash in the past and still contains 
demonstrated resources of potassium ores. Development of 
potash has been considered in Thailand and Peru and 
several other countries. 

EXPORTS, IMPORTS, AND CONSUMPTION 

Aggregated world potash trade in terms of K 2 
equivalents in 1983 is shown in table 6. This table shows 



Table 6.— Aggregated world potash trade, 1983 (9), million metric tons (K 2 equivalent) 



Exporting source, by continent 

Destination, by continent North Eastern Western . . , 

America Europe Europe 

North America ( 3 ) 0.14 0.07 0.27 

Eastern Europe 0.00 NAp .03 .00 

Western Europe 10 1.14 NAp .34 

Asia 1 .63 .64 .49 NAp 

Africa 04 .03 .19 .08 

South America 37 .77 .16 .01 

Oceania 21 .01 .00 .13 

Total, by continent exporting source 2 2.36 2.73 .93 .82 

NAp Not applicable. 

includes Israel. 

2 Data may not add to totals shown because of independent rounding. 

3 This table does not show the volume of trade within continents, for example Canada shipped 4.14 million mt to the United States in 1983. 



Total 

by 

continent 2 



0.48 
.03 

1.58 

2.75 
.35 

1.31 
.35 



6.84 



imports and exports by continent, with the United States 
and Canada shown together under North America. Not 
directly shown on the table are the exports from Canada 
to the United States. 4.14 million mt K 2 equivalents in 
19S3. This made Canada the largest exporter and the 
United States the largest importer of potash in the world 
in 1983. The table illustrates that, after Canada. Eastern 
Europe was the largest exporter, exporting 2.73 million mt. 
Western Europe exported 0.93 million mt and Asia (mostly 
Israel' exported 0.82 million mt. After the United States. 
Asia was the largest importer of potash, importing 2.75 
million mt. Western Europe was second, importing 1.58 
million mt and South America imported 1.31 million mt. 

U.S. exports of muriate and sulfate in terms of product 
to country of destination for 1983 are shown in table 7. A 
total of nearly 386.000 mt of murite and 178.000 mt of 
sulfate were exported in that year. This table demonstrates 
that even though distribution of potash exports from the 
United States is widespread. 63 pet of the muriate went to 
four countries. New Zealand 24 pet. Japan 22 pet. Mexico 
9 pet. and India 8 pet. 

Table 8 shows U.S. imports for consumption of muriate 
of potash by country of origin for 1962. 1972. 1980. 1982, 
and 1983. Imports of muriate from Canada increased 
substantially between 1962 and 1980 with most of the in- 
crease occurring between 1962 and 1972. This is the period 
in which most Canadian potash mines were developed. 

Almost 89 pet of the 1983 U.S. imports for consumption 
of muriate was from Canada. Figure 2 illustrates the growth 
in imports from Canada. Imports of muriate from Israel, 
the German Democratic Republic, and the U.S.S.R. also in- 
creased substantially between 1962 and 1982 with most of 
these increases occurring between 1972 and 1982. Imports 
from Israel and the German Democratic Republic also in- 
creased notably during 1983. Muriate imports from most 
other countries do not show specific trends. 

Table 9 shows U.S. imports for consumption of potas- 
sium sulfate by country of origin for 1962, 1972, 1980, 1982 
and 1983. Imports of sulfate from France and Italy were 
zero in 1983. Imports from the Federal Republic of Germany 
declined in 1982 but increased substantially in 1983. Dur- 
ing 1983. the United States imported significantly more 
muriate of potash than it exported. During 1983 the United 
States exported much more sulfate than it imported. 

Table 10 shows U.S. production, sales, exports, imports 
for consumption and apparent consumption of potash in all 



forms in terms of K 2 for 1962, 1972, 1980, 1982, and 1983. 
Production and sales were near the same level in 1980 and 
1972 as 1962, but they were approximately 25 pet lower 
in 1982. In 1983, production was 20 pet below the 1982 level 



Table 7.— U.S. exports of potash, by country, 
1983 (4), metric tons 

Muriate Sulfate 

Country of destination — — ■ — — 

Product' *K 2 Product "r^O 

Argentina 6,850 3,425 

Australia 7.010 3.505 

Bahamas 20 12 1,710 855 

Belgium 7,600 4.560 

Brazil 11,970 7,182 9,210 4,605 

Canada 4.710 2.826 18,830 9,415 

Chile 10,020 5,010 

Colombia 6,720 4,032 6.060 3,030 

Costa Rica 16,000 9.600 3.760 1,880 

Denmark 23,790 14,274 

Dominican Republic 19,850 11,910 1,520 760 

Ecuador 5,440 3,264 

Egypt 10,120 5,060 

French West Indies 14,690 8,814 

Guatemala 1 ,680 1 ,008 200 100 

Haiti 110 55 

Honduras 1,150 690 70 35 

India 30,430 18,258 

Italy 1 ,600 960 

Jamaica 120 60 

Japan 85,590 51 ,354 53,920 26,960 

Korea. Republic of 180 108 110 55 

Leeward and Windward 

Islands 1,100 660 350 175 

Mexico 36,100 21,660 18,720 9,360 

New Zealand 94,190 56,514 420 210 

Nicaragua 5.900 2,950 

Norway 6,200 3,720 

Panama 2,820 1 ,692 1 ,470 735 

Peru 5,430 3,258 4.750 2,375 

Philippines 10 6 430 215 

Saudi Arabia 90 54 100 50 

Sweden 6,600 3,960 

Switzerland 1,410 841 

Taiwan 20 12 

Thailand 6,000 3,000 

Venezuela 60 36 9,150 4,575 

Other 530 318 850 425 

Total 385,980 231,588 177,760 88,880 

'Minimum 60 pet K 2 0. 

Estimated based on the K 2 grade of the muriate and sulfate. 

includes potassium-magnesium sulfate. 

"Potassium sulfate, 50 pet K 2 0, potassium-magnesium sulfate is 22 pet K 2 



Table 8.— U.S. imports for consumption of muriate of potash, 1 by country of origin (4-8), thousand metric tons 





1962 




1972 




1980 




1982 




1983 






Product 


K 2 


Product 


K 2 


Product 


K 2 


Product 


K 2 


Product 


K 2 


Canada 


69 


41 



95 


82 


26 
5 




4.205 

6 

31 





( 2 ) 

160 





5 

1 


2,523 

4 

19 





( 2 ) 

96 





3 

1 


7.642 

6 





57 

10 

312 

11 

38 



3 


4.585 
4 



34 

6 

187 

7 

23 

2 


5,724 







86 

3 

353 

50 

74 






3,434 







52 

2 

212 

30 

44 






6,371 
1 





136 

30 

510 

53 

76 



( 2 ) 


3 823 


Ctl B 

Congo 

B 






158 


1 




German Democratic Republic 





82 


j<=-~any. Federal Republic of 


137 


18 


Israel 

USSR 
2a re 

■ 



43 
8 




306 

32 

46 



( 2 ) 


Total 3 


414 


248 


4.408 


2,645 


8,079 


4,848 


6,290 


3,774 


7,177 


4,306 



3 Totals may not add because of independent rounding 



, Others 
2 pet 



Israel 
4 pet 



Others 
pet 



i Others 
4 pet 




1962 = 0.4 X I0 6 mt 1972 = 4.4 X I0 6 mt 1983 = 7.2 X I0 6 mt 

Figure 2.— U.S. imports for consumption of muriate of potash, by country of origin, for selected years. 

Table 9.— U.S. imports for consumption of potassium sulfate, 1 by country (4-8), thousand metric tons 

1962 1972 1980 1982 1983 

Product 2 K 2 Product 2 K 2 Product 2 K 2 Product 2 K 2 

France 34 17 21 11 

Germany, Federal Republic of 34 17 38 19 30 15 4 2 

Italy 29 15 

Spain 7 4 

Other (3) (3) 14 7 8 4 

Total" 104 52 60 30 44 22 12 6 59 

1 50 pet K 2 0. Estimated based on 50 pet K 2 in product. 3 Less than V 2 unit. "Totals may not add because of independent rounding. 



Product 


2 K 2 








59 


30 














( 3 ) 


( 3 ) 



30 



and sales were down 15 pet. Exports were over 80 pet 
greater in 1980 than 1982 but they declined in both 1982 
and 1983. Imports have increased dramatically. In 1962 im- 
ports supplied just over 13 pet of apparent consumption in 
the United States, in 1972 imports grew to over 61 pet, in 
1980, 1982, and 1983 they exceeded 75 pet of consumption. 
The growth of imports into the United States occurred dur- 
ing the period of development of the Canadian potash 
industry. 



Table 10.— U.S. production, sales, exports, imports, and 

apparent consumption of potash (4-8), thousand metric tons 

K 2 equivalent 

1962 1972 1980 1982 1983 

Production 2,225 

Sales 2,469 

Exports 461 

Imports 310 

Apparent consumption 2,319 



2,412 


2,239 


1,784 


1,429 


2,375 


2,217 


1,784 


1,513 


693 


840 


519 


300 


2,686 


4,972 


3,858 


4,440 


4,368 


6,349 


5,123 


5,653 



EVALUATION METHODOLOGY 



The data collected for this report were stored, retrieved, 
and analyzed in a computerized component of the Minerals 
Availability Program (MAP). The flow of the minerals avail- 
ability evaluation process from deposit identification to 
analysis of availability information is illustrated in figure 3. 

The analysis methodology of this study is as follows: 

1. Deposits were selected to represent the significant 
producers of potash and include at least 85 pet of the pro- 
duction from market economy countries. Nonproducing 
properties are included if their tonnage and grade are com- 
parable to producing operations. 

2. The quantity and grade of potash resources were 
evaluated in relation to physical and technological condi- 
tions that affect production from each deposit as of the study 
date, January 1984. 

3. Appropriate mining, concentrating, and processing 
methods were described for producing operations and pro- 
posed from nonproducing operations. Related capital invest- 
ments and operating costs were then estimated, including 



a transportation cost to deliver the potash products to a port 
or a marketplace. For purposes of consistency, it was 
assumed in this report that all potash was transported to 
a local port for export unless that product was being used 
for internal domestic consumption. If internally consumed, 
a transportation cost to a typical consuming marketplace 
was included. 

4. An economic analysis determined the average total 
production cost for each operation over its entire produc- 
ing life, including a return on invested capital. This cost 
was then related to the total demonstrated tonnage of 
potash products that could potentially be recovered at a 
specified production level. 

5. Upon completion of the individual property analyses, 
all properties included in the study were simultaneously 
analyzed and aggregated onto one or more cost tonnage 
curves. These curves are aggregations of the total poten- 
tial potash product that could be produced over the life of 
each operation, ordered from the lowest cost deposits to the 



Identification 

and 

selection 

ol deposits 



Tonnage 
-*j and grade 
determination 



Engineering 
and cost 
evaluation 



Deposit 

report 

preparation 

1 



Mineral 

Industries 

Location 

System 

(MILS) 

data 



MAP 

computer 

data 

base 



MAP 

permanent 

deposit 

files 



Taxes. 

royalties. 

cost Indexes, 

prices, etc... 



Data 

selection and 

validation 



Variable and 

parameter 

adjustments 



Economic 
analysis 



Sensitivity 
analysis 



Availability 
curves 



Analytical 
reports 





Data 



Availability 
curves 



Analytical 
reports 



Figure 3.— Flow chart of mineral availability evaluation process. 



highest. The curves illustrate the comparative costs 
associated with any given level of potential total output, 
and provide an estimate of what the average long-run 
potash price ' in January 1984 dollars) would have to be in 
order for a given tonnage to be potentially available. The 
long-run price, which each operation would require to cover 
its average total cost of potash production, would provide 
revenues sufficient to cover the average total cost of pro- 
duction, including a return on investment high enough to 
attract new capital. The rate of return used in this study 
is a 15-pct discounted-cash-flow rate of return (DCFROR) 
on the total investments of each operation. In addition to 
the analysis showing total potential output, an analysis was 
performed relating cost to potential annual output. 

Separate curves of cost-tonnage relationships were 
generated by geographic area and potash product. If a 
deposit produced more than one potash product it was in- 
cluded in more than one cost curve and an analysis was 
made of the percent of revenues derived from each potash 
product. 

- stated in step 1, deposit selection was designed to 
include primary potash producing properties accounting for 
at least 85 pet of potash production from each significant 
producing market economy country, and developing, ex- 
plored, and past producing properties where the demon- 
strated resource is equivalent to those of producing mines. 
As related to this study, reserves are potash mineralizations 
that can be mined, processed, and marketed at a profit 
under prevailing economic and technologic conditions. 

irees are potash concentrations in such form that 



Cumulative 
production 


IDENTIFIED RESOURCES 


UNDISCOVERED RESOURCES 


Demonstrated 


Inferred 


Probability range 


Measured 


Indicated 


Hypothetical Vl ' Speculative 




ECONOMIC 


Rai 


orvo 


Inferred 
reserve 
base 


1 

+ 

+ 
1 


MARGINALLY 
ECONOMIC 


ba 


«e 


SUB- 
ECONOMIC 


_J 




Other 
occurrences 


Includes nonconventlonal and low-grade materials 



Figure 4.— Mineral resource classification categories. 



economic extraction of a commodity is currently or poten- 
tially feasible (10). 

For the deposits analyzed, tonnage estimates were made 
at the demonstrated resource level based on the mineral 
resource-reserve classification system (fig. 4) developed 
jointly by the Bureau of Mines and the U.S. Geological 
Survey (10). The demonstrated resource category includes 
measured plus indicated tonnages. Generally, reserve and 
resource tonnage and grade calculations presented in this 
paper were computed from specific measurements, samples, 
or production data, and from estimations made on geologic 
evidence. 



RESOURCES 



The 68 mines and deposite from 12 market economy 
countries that were included in the availability analysis are 



shown in table 11. Three additional deposits were con- 
sidered but not included in the availability analysis. The 



Table 11.— Potash mines and deposits included in the study, 1982 



Country and deposit name 



Owner 



Status 1 



Mine 



Mill 



Potash 



method 2 method 3 product 4 



Initial Mill 

year of teed 

production grade 5 



Mill capacity 



Ore 6 



Muriate 
product 7 



United States: 
New Mexico: 

AMAX Chemical 

Hecla-Day Potash Lease . . 

Hobbs Potash Facility 

Hodges Potash Property . . 

IMC 

Mississippi Chemical Mine . 

Nash Draw 

National Potash Co 

Noranda Prospect 

Potash Company of America 

Utah: 
Bonneville (Wendover) 



AMAX Chemical Corp . . . 
Hecla-Day Mining Corp . 
New Mexico Potash Corp 

Duval Corp 

IMC 

Mississippi Chemical Co. 
Potash Producers, Inc. . . 
Mississippi Chemical Co. . 
Noranda Exploration Inc. . 
Ideal Basic Industries Inc. 



Cane Creek 
Little Mountain 



Kaiser Aluminum and 
Chemical Co. 

Texasgulf Inc 

GSL Minerals 



Brazil: 

Fazendinha Petrobras Mineracao S.A. 

Taquari-Vassouras do 



Canada: 
Allan Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, 

Texasgulf. 

Borden Unknown 

Bredenbury Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan 

Burr Unknown 

Colonsay (CCP) Noranda Mines Ltd 

Cory Division Potash Corp. of Sasketchewan 

Dundurn Unknown 

Esterhazy K-1 IMC, Potash Corp. of 

Saskatchewan. 

Esterhazy K-2 do 

Kalium PPG Industries Canada Ltd. 

Lanigan Division Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan 

Lockwood A Unknown 

Lockwood B do 

McCauley IMC 

Patience Lake Potash Co. of America 



Unknown 

... do 

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan 



do 



do 



Quill Lake (Kerr-McGee) A 
Quill Lake (Kerr-McGee) B . 
Quill Lake (Scurry 

Rainbow) A 
Quill Lake (Scurry 

Rainbow) B 

Rocanville Division 

Salt Springs Denison Mines Ltd 

Spy Hill Unknown 

Sussex Potash Corp. of America 

Vade Cominco Ltd 

Whitewood Unknown 

Yorkton do 

Young do 

Zelma do 



Chile: Salar de Atacama Corfo 

Congo: Holle People's Republic of the Congo 

France: 

Amelie Mines de Potasse d'Alsace .... 



Marie Louise 
Theodore . . . 



do 
do 



Germany, Federal Republic of: 
Bergmannssegen-Hugo/ 
Friedrichshall. 13 

Hattorf 

Neuhof-Ellers 

Niedersachsen — Riedel 

Salzdetfurth 

Siegfried-Giesen 

Sigmundshall 

Wintershall 



Kali und Salz AG 



do 
do 
do 
.do 
do 
.do 
.do 



pn 

N 

N 

N 

P 

N 

N 

N 

N 

N 

N 

P 
P 
P 



P 
P 
P 
P 

pi4 

P 

P 



RP . 

RP . 

RP. 

RP. 

RP. 

RP. 

RP . 

RP 

RP . 

RP 

BR . . 

SOL. 
BR . . 

RP 
RP 

RP . . 



Israel: Dead Sea Works Dead Sea Works 



LC 
RP 
RP 

SL 

RP 
RP 
SL 
SL 
SL 
SL 
RP 

BR 



Fl 

Fl 

Cr . . . . 
FL, Cr. 

Fl 

Fl 

L 

FL, Cr 

Fl 

FL, Cr. 

Fl 

FL 

Cr . .. . 

Fl 

Fl 

FL, Cr 



RP . . 


. FL, Cr.. 


RP 


FL, Cr 


RP 


FL, Cr . 


RP . . 


FL, Cr 


RP . 


FL, Cr 


RP . . 


FL, Cr.. 


RP . 


. FL, Cr.. 


RP . . 


. FL, Cr.. 


SOL. 


. Cr 


RP . . 


. FL, Cr.. 


RP 


. FL, Cr.. 


RP . . 


FL, Cr.. 


RP 


. FL, Cr.. 


RP . . 


. FL, Cr . 


RP . 


FL, Cr 


RP . 


FL, Cr.. 


RP 


. FL, Cr. 


RP . . 


. FL, Cr.. 


RP . 


FL, Cr . 


ICF 


. FL, Cr . 


RP. . 


. FL, Cr.. 


HCF. 


. FL, Cr . 


RP.. 


FL, Cr.. 


RP. . 


FL, Cr. 


RP . . 


FL, Cr.. 


RP . . 


FL, Cr . 


RP . . 


. FL, Cr . 


BR . 


FL 


RP . 


. FL 



Cr . . . 
Cr . . . 

Fl 

Cr . . . 

Cr . . 

Fl 

Cr . . . 
Cr 

Cr .. . 
FL, Cr 
Cr . 

Cr . . . 



M 

M, S, KMg 

M 

M, KMg. . . 
M, S, KMg 

M 

KMg 

M 

M 

M, S 

W 

M 

S 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

M 

G 

G 

G 

G 

G 

G 

G 

G 

M 



1952 
NAp 
1965 
NAp 
1940 
1931 
1964 
1957 
NAp 
1935 

1937 

1964 
1968 



NAp 
NAp 

1968 

NAp 
NAp 
NAp 
1970 
1969 
NAp 
1962 

1967 
1964 
1968 
NAp 
NAp 
NAp 
1958 
NAp 
NAp 
NAp 

NAp 

1971 
NAp 
NAp 
1983 
1969 
NAp 
NAp 
NAp 
NAp 

NAp 

(12) 

1914 
1914 
1914 

1930 

1910 
1956 
1910 
1900 
1906 
1948 
1903 

1952 



B 

A 
B 
A 
A 
A 
A" 
A 
B 
B 



A 
A 10 



See explanatory notes at end of table. 



Table 11— Potash mines and deposits included in the study, 1982— Continued 



Country and deposit name 



Owner 



Status 1 



Mine Mill 

method? method 3 



Potash 
product- 1 



Mill 
feed 



Mill capacity 



Initial 
year of 
production grade 5 product 7 



Muriate 



Italy: 
Corvillo 



Milena 
Pasquasia 
Racalmuto 
Realmonte 

Jordan: Arab Potash 

Spam: 
Cardona 
Esparza 
Llobregat 
Suna 



ISPEA 


N 


RP 


FL 


S 


EMS 


N 


RP 


FL 


s 


ISPEA 


P 


RP 


FL 


s 


do 


P 


RP 
RP 


FL 
FL 


s 


EMSAMS 


P 


S 


Arab Potash Co 


P 


BR 


. Cr . . . 


M 



NAp 


A 


A 


A' 




NAp 


A 


A 


A 1 




1959 


A 


A 


A' 




1973 


A 


A 


A' 




1976 


A 


A 


A' 



1982 



United Kingdom: Boulby 



Union Explosivos Rio Tinto S.A. 

Potasas de Navarra S.A 

Union Explosivos Rio Tinto S.A. 
Minas de Potasas de Suria S.A. 

Cleveland Potash Ltd 



p 


SL 


FL 


P 


LC 


FL 


p 


RP 


FL 


p 


RP 


FL 



RP 



FL. Cr. 



1930 


A 


A 


A 


1963 


A 


A 


A 


1913 


A 


A 


A 


1926 


A 


A 


A 



1974 



D 



B 



NAp Not applicable 

'P— producer. N— nonproducer. S— standby. 

*RP — room and pillar. BR — brine recovery. SOL — solution mining. ICF— inclined cut and fill, HCF — horizontal cut and fill, LC— longwall caving, SL — sublevel. 

^FL— flotation. Cr — crystallization. L — leach. 

*M — potassium muriate. S — potassium sulfate. KMg — potassium-magnesium sulfate, G — potash operations in the Federal Republic of Germany produce 
mui ate. sulfate, and numerous other potash products. 

5 Feed grade (weight percent K 2 0): A— <15.0: B— 15.0-20.0: C— 20.1-25.0; D— >25 

sMill ore capacity (thousand metric tons per year ore): A— <3,001 -6.000; C— 6,001-9,000; D— >9.000 

7 Muriate product capacity (thousand metric tons per year muriate product): A— <500: B— 501-1,000; C— 1,001-1,500; D— >1,500. 

sGrade and product capacity are for potassium-magnesium sulfate because the mine produces no muriate. 

'Bonneville also produces manure salt. 

'"Grade and product capacity are for potassium sulfate since the mine produces no muriate. 
"Rocanville flooded. 
"'Holle produced in the early 1970s. 
13 Fnednchshall Mine closed, reserves included with Bergmannaseghn-Hugo. 

-S egfried-Glesen shut down in 1984. 



Khorat Plateau in Thailand was not evaluated because of 
lack of information about demonstrated resources of sylvi- 
nite. Carnallite resources are known but carnallite was not 
considered an ore in this study. The demonstrated resources 
of two California deposits, a producer at Searles Lake and 
a proposed operation at the Salton Sea were included in the 
resource totals discussed here, but the deposits were not in- 
cluded in the availability analysis because potash is or 
would be only a minor byproduct. Potash occurrences have 
been examined in Michigan by PPG but no resource data 
are available. The Silver Peak Lithium Mine in Nevada has 
potash, but it is not being recovered. 

The 68 deposits included in this analysis contained 
demonstrated in situ potash resources of 11.7 billion mt K 2 
equivalent, as shown in table 12 and figure 5. The table 
shows that 82 pet of demonstrated in situ resources in terms 
of contained K 2 equivalents are located in Canada, more 
than 10 pet in the Dead Sea. less than 4 pet in Western 
Europe, and less than 2 pet in the United States (it should 
be noted that the total demonstrated resources of K 2 in 
the United States almost double to 348 million mt when 
the byproduct resources of Searles Lake and the Salton Sea, 
162 million mt, are included). 

Table 12 also shows the percentage distribution of 
potash products. It shows that 89 pet of the potash poten- 
tially recoverable from resources located in market economy 
countries would take the form of potassium muriate, while 
9 pet would be in the form of potassium sulfate. 

Inferred resources are associated with many of the 
deposits included in this study. The largest are located in 
Canada. It has been estimated that Canadian inferred 
resources minable by conventional methods are 35 billion 



mt and that additional inferred tonnages of K 2 minable 
by solution methods are three times the amount minable 
by conventional underground methods (11). 



United States 
2 pet 
Western Europe 
4 pet 



Others 
2 pet 




Figure 5.— Demonstrated in situ potash resources in market 
economy countries, 11.7 billion mt K 2 equivalents, 1984. 



10 



Table 12.— Demonstrated potash resources associated with deposits included in this analysis as of January 1984 

(Quantities in million metric tons, grades in weight percent K 2 0) 

Grade, In situ In situ Total 1 Product share, wt pet of K 2 Q 

Geographic area ^ pc , resources K 2 K 2 Muriate 2 Sulfate 3 Other" 

United States: 

New Mexico 12.78 853 109 72 80 6 14 

Utah .85 9,077 77 577 4 96 Q_ 

Total or average 7 1.87 9,930 18(3 149 41 52 _7_ 

Canada 22.50 42,788 9,630 2,978 100 

Western Europe 12.10 3,546 429 227 50 25 25 

Dead Sea .75 164,968 1,237 "165 100 

Other 7.27 3,040 221 23 86 14 0_ 

Total or average 9 5.22 224,272 11,703 3,542 89 9 2 

'In recovered products. 

2 Minimum of 60 pet K 2 0. 

3 Minimum of 50 pet K 2 0. 

"Other includes potassium-magnesium sulfate in New Mexico, manure salt in Utah, and the variety of products of the mines in the Federal Republic of Ger- 
many for Europe. 

5 ln situ and recoverable K 2 are the same for Utah because the analysis assumed that all of the K 2 in the north arm of the Great Salt Lake would be recovered. 
As potash is recovered, more is brought in by streams and when the brine becomes less concentrated, previously precipitated salts on the lake bottom would 
be redissolved. 

6 Less than 0.5 pet. 

7 Does not include the 162 million mt of K 2 equivalent at Searles Lake and the Salton Sea which could be produced as a byproduct. 

8 K 2 in the product is much lower than in situ K 2 because the analysis is based on a 25-pct recovery. After 25 pet is taken from the Dead Sea, the grade 
of the remaining brine would be too low to make recovery economic. 

includes both ore and brine, average grade is 20.7 pet for ore and 0.75 pet for brine. 



GEOLOGY 



Potassium and sodium are common elements found in 
most rocks. Feldspars and micas contain varying amounts 
of potassium. When these minerals weather they release 
potassium ions. The ions are absorbed into the soil and into 
plants or are transported through rivers to the sea. Potash 
layers are often interbedded with halite (sodium chloride) 
because of the precipitation of sodium from these same solu- 
tions. The formation of potassium-bearing deposits is usu- 
ally a result of cyclic precipitation of potassium compounds 
during evaporation of solutions. 

Occasionally in geologic history parts of an ocean 
became landlocked. When this was followed by arid condi- 
tions, these segregated seas were subjected to evaporation, 
and halite beds began to form. Eventually, if the brine 
became sufficiently concentrated, the highly soluble 



potassium salts began to precipitate. If wet periods occurred, 
the salinity of the sea would decrease which caused sylvinite 
precipitation to cease and halite precipitation to begin 
again. This cycle could repeat many times, or begin again 
with more marine brines being added to these segregated 
seas. When the sea finally dried, a halite body interbedded 
with sylvinite layers remained. 

Today, areas that have this geologic history account for 
most of the profitably mined resources in the world. In some 
cases, such as the Dead Sea and the Great Salt Lake of 
Utah, brines containing recoverable amounts of potassium 
are also exploited. 

A detailed discussion of the geology of the deposits that 
were evaluated as a part of this study is presented in the 
appendix. 



MINING AND PROCESSING OF POTASH 



MINING 

Eighty percent of the potential annual production of 
potassium muriate from producing mines included in this 
study could be recovered by conventional underground min- 
ing methods, 8 pet could be from underground solution 
methods, and 12 pet could be recovered from surface brine 
operations. Producing potassium sulfate operations would 
derive 91 pet of potential annual production from under- 
ground ores recovered using conventional methods, with the 
remaining 9 pet from brine recovery. 

Individual deposit or operation information such as min- 
ing and beneficiation methods, status, capacities, grades, 
ownership, and initial production year are shown in 
table 11. 



Conventional Underground Mining Methods 

Most potash occurs in deposits that require recovery by 
underground mining methods. Room and pillar is the most 
common method used. However, potash recovery using long- 
wall mining techniques is common in France and Spain, 
and potash operations in the Federal Republic of Germany 
use sublevel techniques where the seams are steeply dip- 
ping because of extensive folding. 

Table 13 shows the weighted average in situ grade, mine 
recovery, and annual capacity for mines using conventional 
underground methods. This table shows that Canadian 
mines have the highest in situ grade, but the lowest mine 
recovery. The low mine recovery results because large 



11 



Table 13. — In situ grade and mine recovery for potash mines 
using conventional underground methods, by area 









In situ 


Mine 


Annual 


Area 






grade. 


recovery. 


capacity. 








pet 


pet 


10 6 mt ore 


Producers: 












United States 






13.1 


88.7 


18 


Canada 






25.7 


36.7 


47 


Europe 


or total 


124 


62.1 


51 


Weighted average 


21 5 


62.1 


116 


Nonproducers 








United States 






11 5 


88.3 


10 


Canada 






24.0 


35.7 


78 


Othc' 






182 


34.1 


6 


Weighted average 


Of 


total 


23 6 


35.9 


94 



'Italy. Brazil, and Congo. 

pillars are left because of the depth of most of the Cana- 
dian ore and the need to avoid any subsidence of overlying 
water-bearing formations. When the ore body is situated 
greater than 1.000 m below the surface, conventional 
methods cannot be used because of rock stability problems. 
Solution mining techniques have been successfully prac- 
ticed in these situations. These methods are discussed later 
in this section. 

Room and Pillar 

As of January 1982. 25 of the 41 producing potash mines 
included in this analysis utilized room and pillar recovery 
methods. Additionally, 24 of 27 developing properties have 
proposed room and pillar operations. 

Room and pillar mining is used when the ore body is 
flat to shallow dipping. Access to the ore body is typically 
by means of a vertical shaft. The method involves driving 
openings that divide the potash ore into rectangular blocks 
of ore. leaving pillars between the blocks for support. In 
shallow mine depths, such as those in New Mexico, the 
pillars are then recovered as mining in an area is completed 
• pillar retreat ' allowing the back (roof) to cave in. Total mine 
recover.- when pillars are recovered is up to 90 pet. However, 
in deep mines, such as those in Canada, pillars must re- 
main in place for support during the entire life of the mine. 
Because of this, room and pillar mine recoveries in Canada 
are near 35 pet. The pillars cannot be recovered from the 
Canadian mines because the brines under high pressure in 
the Blairmore Formation above the potash would flood the 
mine. 

Room and pillar mining allows operators to modify the 
system in ways that are suitable to their specific operation. 
It also allows for a large degree of selectivity, an important 
factor when a barren area, called a "salt horse," occurs in 
the ore body. 

Sublevel Stoping 

Sublevel stoping is common in steeply dipping deposits 
that are surrounded with competent country rock. Six pro- 
ducing mines utilize this method. Access to these mines is 
generally by vertical shaft. Ore is mined by drilling and 
blasting on each sublevel and allowing the ore to fall into 
drawpoints located below the ore body. This method is ideal 
for mining potash that is generally uniform in grade, since 
sublevel stoping does not lend itself to sorting of the ore. 
Mine recoveries using this method average 75 pet. 



Longwall Caving 

Longwall mining is a highly productive but capital in- 
tensive mining method used in flat-lying deposits that have 
relatively weak overlying strata. Four producing mines 
utilize this method. The ore is cut from a long face, usually 
greater than 50 m in length, by a cutting drum, known as 
a face shearer. The broken ore drops onto a conveyor run- 
ning parallel to the face. The potash is transferred to 
another conveyor, running perpendicular to the face which 
transports the ore to the surface for processing. Roof sup- 
port chocks keep the roof from caving in at the face, allow- 
ing working room for the personnel and equipment. As the 
face advances, the roof support chocks and conveyor are 
advanced, allowing the roof to cave behind the chocks. 
France uses this method exclusively and Spain used this 
technique in its Esparza Mine until it closed. 

Cut-and-Fill Stoping 

Cut-and-fill stoping was not used in the potash industry 
until recently. It is the method at Salt Springs and Sussex- 
two developing mines in New Brunswick, Canada. In this 
method, the ore is broken by overhand mining techniques 
(similar to sublevel stoping) and removed from the stope. 
After the broken ore is removed, the stope is filled with 
waste to within working distance of the back and the proc- 
ess is repeated. The waste material will be mostly common 
salt, halite. This method is suitable in the New Brunswick 
area because storage of mill tailings on the surface poses 
a problem. Mine recovery for this method is expected to be 
about 75 pet. 

Solution Mining 

The Kalium Mine in Canada and the Cane Creek Mine 
in Utah are the only potash mines using underground solu- 
tion methods that involve pumping liquids underground to 
dissolve the potash and bring it to the surface through wells 
as a brine. The potash deposit being explored in Michigan 
would be developed using this method. 

The Kalium ore body occurs at depths greater than 
1,000 m. At this depth, the use of conventional mining 
methods becomes inadequate because of rock instability 
caused by the high pressure of the overlying rock. Although 
the system used in Kalium is confidential, documented 
patents reveal that a hot water process is used. 

For the Kalium method to be successful, the deposit 
must be overlain by an impermeable layer (in this case, 
halite). The process involves developing a well by sinking 
a casing and tubing just below the potash horizon. A cavity 
is then developed by continuously pumping hot water 
through the pipe annulus and allowing the salt solution to 
rise up the tubing to the surface. The concentrated brine 
is then pumped to the mill plant for potash recovery. This 
method requires continuous development of new wells. 
Although this method has been tried elsewhere (i.e., 
Southwest Potash Corp., Yorkton, Saskatchewan, Canada) 
<12), it has only been successful at Kalium. 

The Cane Creek Mine was originally developed as a con- 
ventional underground room and pillar mine. Problems 
were encountered as a result of high rock pressures; a 
pitched, faulted, and undulating potash bed; weak roof con- 
ditions; and gas in the mine. As a result, the mine was con- 
verted to a solution operation. This was done by flooding 



12 



the underground operation. Water is pumped into the mine 
as brine is withdrawn. It takes from 300 to 350 days reten- 
tion time to produce satisfactory brine. As the brine becomes 
saturated, it moves to the lowest level of the former work- 
ings; at this level a large well extracts the brine. The brine 
is pumped to solar evaporation ponds. 

Brine Recovery 

Four established and one proposed operation that pro- 
duce or would produce potash from naturally occurring 
brines are included in the availability analysis. One opera- 
tion recovers potash from the brines of the Great Salt Lake 
in Utah, and two operations recover potash from the brine 
of the Dead Sea; one in Israel and the other in Jordan. At 
the fourth established operation, potash-rich brines are 
recovered from a shallow aquifer at Wendover, UT, using 
6-m-deep trenches. The proposed operation, located in Chile, 
would recover underground brines through shallow wells 
from the Salar de Atacama deposit in Chile. All of these 
brine operations incorporate solar evaporation ponds in 
their recovery process. 

Solar evaporation depends on the heat of the sun to 
evaporate the water, thus concentrating the mineral con- 
tent of brines. This type of system is best utilized in dry 
regions such as the Dead Sea region of Israel and Jordan, 
and the Great Salt Lake and the Bonneville Salt Flats of 
Utah. 

Solar evaporation systems vary in detail. In a typical 
system, brine is pumped into shallow solar evaporation pans 
ranging in size from 2 to 80 km 2 , where the water is evapor- 
ated from the brine. Some areas also use chemicals such 
as "napthol green" to increase the evaporation rate. At the 
Dead Sea, when the brine reaches a specific gravity of 1.30, 
it is pumped into carnallite pans. Further evaporation in 
the carnallite pans, which operate on a batch system, yields 
carnallite and other products. The evaporate is harvested 
every 2 or 3 yr, or when the specific gravity reaches 1.35, 
by a dredge and fed to the mill plant. The unused brine 
(after processing) is usually pumped back to its origin. 



BENEFICIATION 

Potash ore must be beneficiated to remove halite and 
clay insolubles before it can be sold as a marketable prod- 
uct. Potash ore is usually beneficiated by flotation or 
crystallization, or a combination of both; langbienite ore is 
beneficiated only by washing (leaching). Table 14 shows the 
weighted average mill recoveries. 



Table 14.— Weighted average mill recovery for mills 

beneficiating potash ore and proposed recovery rates for 

nonproducing mills, by area, percent 

Producers: 

United States 75.1 

Canada 85.5 

Europe 95.9 

Weighted average 91 .6 

Nonproducers: 

United States 74.5 

Canada 87.8 

Brazil and Congo 88.1 

Weighted average 87.7 



Potash ore from the mine is first sent to a crushing and 
screening circuit where the potash minerals are liberated 
from the gangue minerals. Generally, the ore passes 
through a series of vibrating screens to classify oversize and 
undersize particles. Undersize particles are passed to the 
next processing stage. Oversize particles are returned to the 
crushing circuit, usually impactors, for further size reduc- 
tion and are then rescreened. For most potash ores the 
undersized material goes to the scrubbers; however, the 
undersized material in the processing of langbeinite ore is 
leached, to remove the sodium chloride contaminant, thus 
leaving the washed langbeinite to be dried and screened. 

Crushed ore is passed through scrubbers where trom- 
mels or water jets are used to remove any clay or similar 
material that is exposed by crushing the ore. Desliming, 
typically utilizing hydrocyclones, is an especially important 
step prior to flotation, to prevent ultrafine particles from 
entering the flotation cells. These fine particles have a 
tendency to cement together and greatly reduce the effi- 
ciency of flotation cells. Desliming is not necessary prior 
to crystallization; however, it is often used to provide a 
clearer solution in the evaporator and aid in nucleation. 

Flotation 

Flotation is used in the beneficiation of sylvinite and 
kainite ores; a simplifed flotation circuit is shown in figure 
6. In the case of sylvinite ores, after the ore has been de- 
slimed, reagents are added to prepare the ore for flotation. 

Ore 





Storage 






i 












A 








Screening 


Oversize 


Impact 
crushing 




Recirculate 








brine 




Unders 


ize 






^ 


i 










Scrubbing 










■ 






Dewater 




Desliming 




















, 


1 


i 


1 


Tails 


Conditioning 


To 








< 


dewatering 






1 












Rougher 
flotation 




Scavenger 
flotation 














i 


I 












* 


Cleaner 
flotation 




' 








i 


' 








Centrifuging 












i 






Drying 








i 






Screening 




Gr 






• 




i 

sial 

dard 


i 

anular 




Coa 


1 

rse 


Star 


1 1 

dard Spe 
stani 



Figure 6. — Simplified flotation circuit. 



13 



Reagents include a depressant for slimes, an amine sylvite 
<KC1» collector, flotation oil frother. and anticaking 
chemicals. 

The primary function of flotation of sylvite is to 
separate, by means of reagents, the potassium chloride from 
the sodium chloride and to concentrate the potassium to 
marketable levels. Flotation also acts to separate the potash 
from clays and other minerals and insolubles that may ex- 
ist in the feed. Many mills that recover sylvite by flotation 
include a crystallization step after flotation to increase the 
recover. - of fines. Those that only use flotation include more 
cleaning circuits to achieve the same recovery and product 
grade results. 

Flotation of kainite is similar to the flotation of sylvite. 
Kainite is separated from the waste material by flotation. 
After flotation the kainite goes through a conversion proc- 
ess, in which it is dissolved in a sulfate solution producing 
schoenite, and a lixiviation step, in which the MgSO, is 
dissolved from the schoenite leaving K 2 S0 4 . The only opera- 
tions included in this study that process kainite are located 
in Utah and Italy. 

Crystallization 

Crystallization is a thermal process used to recover 
potash from a saturated solution of KC1 (liquor). A 
simplified crystallization circuit is shown in figure 7. The 
liquor is pumped through a heat exchanger and then into 
an evaporative crystallizer. In the crystallizer, the surface 
of the slurry is maintained at the boiling point of water, 
and evolved steam is withdrawn through the top of the unit 
and subsequently condensed. In order to maintain 
equilibrium, the dissolved KC1 nucleates on the surface of 
KC1 crystals already existing in the circulating stream. 
When the crystals have grown sufficiently, the slurry is 
removed from the circulating stream. The slurry then goes 
to a centrifuge for dewatering. The solids are then dried 
and sized. If combined methods are used, the solids are com- 
bined with the concentrate from the flotation cells. From 
this point drying and sizing is performed on a common 
product. 



Brine containing 
K2O value 



Icentrifuging U 



Byproduct ■ 



Byproduct 
processing 



Tailings 
pond 



— Evaporation 

ZIEzr 



Thickening 



Crystallization | 



Solid-liquid 
separation 



Filtering 



Drying 



Screening 



r t 



-^Compaction 



Standard Special 
standard 



Figure 7.— Simplified crystallization circuit. 



Drying and Sizing 

The floated or crystallized product is dried to remove 
as much water as possible from the product to reduce 
transportation costs and to allow sizing. Fluid bed or rotary 
dryers are used. 

Sizing via screens is performed after all other beneficia- 
tion is completed. The value of potash is dependent on its 
size. The common sizes are granular, coarse, standard, and 
special standard. The value follows accordingly with 
granular sized potash having the highest worth. Sometimes 
the dried potash is compacted and then crushed and screen- 
ed to produce a granular product. 



POTASH DEPOSIT PRODUCTION COSTS 



COSTING METHODOLOGY 

For each property included in this study, a cost evalua- 
tion was made for both capital and operating costs, to reflect 
as nearly as possible, actual operations, or in the case of 
nonproducers. to reflect expected operational technologies 
and capacities. Costs for the deposits in the United States 
v. r-r" developed by Bureau of Mines Field Oeprations 
Centers in Spokane, WA, and Denver, CO, based on actual 
reported company data, scaling from simlar known opera- 
tions, or by using the Minerals Availability Program (MAP) 
estimating system <CESi (13). Costs for most foreign 
deposit - were collected and developed by .Jacobs Engineer- 
ing Group. Inc.. under a contract with the Bureau of Mines. 
of the foreign deposit costs are actual company 
reported data; others were estimated by the contractor us- 
ing their knowledge of the operation or deposit plus their 
experience in the industry. 

All costs presented in this report, with the exception of 
those for the Dead Sea Works in Israel, are in terms of 



January 1984 U.S. dollars. The cost estimates reflect a 
prefeasibility estimate of ±25 pet. Costs associated with the 
Dead Sea Works in Israel have not been updated from the 
original January 1982 U.S. dollars collected by Jacobs 
Engineering Group, Inc. This is because inflation and the 
extreme devaluation of Israeli currency between 1982 and 
1984 make the updating of costs to January 1984 
unrealistic. This does not seriously affect the analysis of 
the availability of potash from Israel. 

Capital expenditures were calculated for exploration, 
acquisition, development, mine plant and equipment, con- 
struction of the mill plant, and installation of the mill equip- 
ment. Capital expenditures for mining and processing 
facilities include the costs of mobile and stationary equip- 
ment, engineering design, facilities and utilities, and work- 
ing capital. Facilities and utilities (infrastructure) includes 
the cost of access and haulage facilities, water facilities, 
power supply, and personnel accommodations. Working 
capital is ;i revolving cash fund required for such operating 
expenses as labor, supplies, taxes, and insurance. 



14 



Mine and mill operating costs are a combination of 
direct and indirect costs. Direct operating costs include 
materials, utilities, direct and maintenance labor, and 
payroll overhead. Indirect operating costs include technical 
and clerical labor, administrative costs, facilities 
maintenance and supplies, and research. 

OPERATING COSTS 

Operating costs for underground mines included in this 
study that use conventional mining methods to produce 
potassium muriate are shown by geographic area in tables 
15 and 16. Table 15 shows mine and mill costs per metric 
ton ore, and ore feed grade. Table 16 shows costs per metric 
ton potassium muriate product for all operating costs. Cana- 
dian properties have the lowest mine and mill operating 
costs both in terms of dollars per metric ton ore, and in terms 
of dollars per metric ton muriate. This reflects the fact that 
ore grades in Canada are high relative to other areas. 

Mine operating costs per metric ton of ore for produc- 
ing mines in the United States are slightly lower than those 

Table 15.— Mine and mill operating costs per metric ton ore 

for selected underground potassium muriate 

mines and deposits 

(All costs are in January 1984 dollars per metric ton ore 
on a weighted-average basis) 

Number Feed grade, Op^atmg^costs 
wt pet K 2 Mine Mill 

United States: 

Producers 6 13.4 $5.20 $5.70 

Nonproducers 3 11.5 6.90 6.80 

Canada: 

Producers 9 21.0 3.40 4.70 

Nonproducers 18 23.0 4.00 4.50 

Europe 1 16 11.6 5.70 10.00 

1 1ncludes the Federal Republic ot Germany, France, Spain, and the United 
Kingdom. 



for mines in Europe. Mine operating costs in Europe in 
terms of dollars per metric ton muriate, are much higher 
because many other products in addition to muriate are pro- 
duced from the ore. Costs for U.S. nonproducers are higher 
than for producers, both in terms of dollars per metric ton 
ore and dollars per metric ton muriate product. They are 
higher than the average mine operating costs for European 
producers both in terms of dollars per metric ton ore and 
dollars per metric ton muriate product. 

Mill operating costs per metric ton of ore for producers 
in the United States are lower than all other areas except 
Canada. Nonproducers in the United States would have 
higher mill operating costs than producers in the United 
States and Canadian producers and nonproducers and lower 
mill operating costs than European producers. Mill 
operating costs per metric ton of ore and per metric ton of 
product for mines in Europe are much higher than others 
in the analysis, owing to the many byproducts produced. 
In terms of dollars per metric ton, muriate product, Euro- 
pean producers have the lowest costs except for producers 
in Canada, followed in order by producers and nonproducers 
in the United States. 

The column labeled "taxes" in table 16 includes prop- 
erty, local, national, and severance taxes, plus royalties, if 
any. Taxes are generally greater for nonproducers in this 
study, because in most cases, the revenues required to cover 
the higher overall costs (including profit) are greater. In 
other words, nonproducers would require a higher taxable 
income (leading to higher tax payments) in order to cover 
all operating costs and provide for a 15-pct DCFROR on all 
investments. Total operating cost for muriate f.o.b. mill 
represents the total operating cost at the mill per ton of 
muriate. It does not include any transportation cost. 

Byproduct revenues are the revenues received for prod- 
ucts other than the primary product. They are calculated 
by multiplying the quantity of each byproduct produced by 
its market price. They must be deducted from total 



Table 16.— Operating costs per metric ton potassium muriate product for selected underground mines and deposits 

(All costs are in January 1984 dollars per metric ton product on a weighted-average basis) 

Transportation Total cost 

Countrv Total Total cost to point including Total 

or reqion operating operating of export transportation cost 

Number Mine Mill Taxes 1 cost Byproduct cost for or domestic for for 

(f.o.b. mill 2 ) revenues 3 muriate 4 market 5 muriate 6 muriate 7 

United States: 

Producer 6 $38.70 $42.50 $8.00 $89.20 $34.70 $54.50 $49.00 $103.50 $115.00 

Nonproducer 6 72.00 71.60 26.30 169.90 94.00 75.90 49.00 124.90 184.60 

Canada: 

P'oducer 9 10.10 13.90 8.80 32.80 .00 32.80 32.20 65.00 75.30 

Nonproducer 18 12.20 13.50 142.30 168.00 .00 168.00 28.80 196.80 248.60 

Europe 6 Producer 16 63.80 111.90 26.20 201.40 ^1 58.58 43.40 3^20 46.60 81.61 

1 1ncludes all property, local, national, and severance taxes plus any royalty. Nonproducers would require higher income in order to provide the stipulated 
15-pct DCFROR; thus, aggregate tax payments are generally higher than for producing operations. 

2 Sum of the 3 previous columns, mine and mill operating costs, and taxes. 

Calculated by multiplying the quantity of each byproduct by its market price. 

4 Operating cost f.o.b. mill; calculated by deducting byproduct credits from total operating costs f.o.b. mill. 

5 Cost to selected points of export or domestic markets that have been assumed as the product destination points for this study. 

6 Total muriate operating cost at the port or market; calculated from total operating cost, f.o.b. mill, by deducting byproduct credits, and adding the cost of 
transportation. 

'Includes a 15-pct DCFROR on all investments over the life of the property. 

8 Europe includes the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom. 

9 Byproduct revenues are large because of the numerous potash products produced in addition to muriate. 



15 



operating costs to determine the costs of producing the 
primary product. 

Transportation costs represent the average cost to 
transport the muriate product to a port or domestic market. 
The transportation cost for the operations in the United 
States represents the cost of shipping by rail from the 
Carlsbad. NM, area to a typical market in the central 
Midwest. For other countries, the transportation cost 
represents the cost to ship to a port or a point of export. 
The table shows transportation costs to be highest for mines 
in the United States. The total cost to transport potash from 
Saskatchewan to the central part of the United States 
(Missouri' j n 19S4 is estimated to be $33 mt. The total 
transportation cost for mines in the United States to the 
same point was $49 mt. Canadian producers appear to have 
a transportation advantage in the northern States and 
domestic producers appear to have an advantage in the 
southern States. Shipments to the central Midwest have 
shifted. In 1980. domestic producers shipped 94.000 mt to 
Missouri but in 1983. Missouri received no domestic 
shipments, but received significant shipments from Canada 
CM). 

European operations are much closer to the port or 
market and therefore have lower transportation costs. Total 
operating costs for muriate represent all operating costs in- 
cluding transportation to port or market less byproduct 
revenues. This represents the operating costs attributable 
to muriate. The last column on table 16 represents the total 
cost attributable to muriate including recovery of capital 
and a 15-pct DCFROR on all investments over the life of 
the property. 



CAPITAL COSTS 

Total primary investments to develop new underground 
muriate mines in 1984 in Canada are estimated to range 
between $200 and $800 million U.S. dollars. On an annual 
metric ton muriate product basis, the range is estimated 
to be generally between $220 and $340. Total primary in- 
vestments to develop a new underground operation in the 
United States are estimated to range between $50 and $150 
million, which, on an annual metric ton muriate basis 
become $100 to $150. Total primary investments to develop 
new underground muriate mines in Brazil and the Congo 
are estimated to be generally less than those in Canada and 
larger than those in the United States. On an annual metric 
ton ore basis primary investments to develop new under- 
ground muriate mines in Brazil and the Congo are 
estimated to be generally above those of Canada. These costs 
represent the costs to acquire, explore, develop, and equip 
a new mine site along with construction of mine and mill 
plants and buildings. 

The reason total primary investments are larger in 
Canada is because the mines are larger and shafts are 
deeper and more difficult to sink. Primary investments per 
metric ton of muriate in Canadian operations are higher 
than those in the United States because the Canadian ore 
is at more than twice the depth as ore in the United States 
and serious problems occur during shaft sinking. Develop- 
ing the deposits in Brazil or the Congo is more difficult 
geologically than developing deposits in the United States, 
which results in higher initial investments for mines in 
those countries. 



POTASH CONCENTRATE AVAILABILITY 



ECONOMIC EVALUATION METHODOLOGY 

Once all the cost and engineering data are established, 
production parameters and cost estimates for each mine and 
deposit are entered into the MAP computerized supply 
analysis model <SAMi. The Bureau has developed the SAM 
to perform DCFROR analyses to determine the long-run 
constant dollar cost. This cost of the primary commodity 
must equal the price at which the primary commodity must 
be sold to recover all costs of production and investments 
US). The DCFROR is most commonly defined as the rate 
of return that makes the present worth of cash flow from 
an investment equal to the present worth of all after-tax 
investments < 16*. For this study, a 15-pct DCFROR was con- 
sidered the necessary rate of return to cover the opportu- 
nity cost of capital plus risk. The determined value for the 
primary commodity cost is equivalent to the average total 
cost of production 'including credits for byproducts) for the 
operation over its producing life. 

If an operation has more than one product, the prices 
of the byproducts are assumed to be the market prices for 
the period of analysis, which, for this study, is January 
1984. Revenues generated by byproducts are credited 
against the costs of production. Market prices used in this 
analysis are shown in table 17. 

All prices in this table have been converted to U.S. 
dollars per metric ton. The original price data for com- 
modities in the United States or Canada were from the 
Chemical Marketing Reporter or Green Markets The 
muriate prices for both the United States and Canada are 



based on prices for coarse muriate from the January 9, 1984, 
Green Markets. Coarse muriate prices in the January 10, 
1983, Green Markets for the United States (f.o.b. Carlsbad, 
NM), and for Canada (f.o.b. Saskatchewan), were not 
significantly different than the January 1984 prices shown 
in table 17. The original price data for commodities in the 
Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) were supplied by Kali 
und Salz (K&S), the company that owns the potash mines 
in the FRG. The prices supplied by K&S were in the cur- 
rency of the FRG. 

The percentage distribution of total revenues projected 
to be received by operations for potash products at January 
1984 market prices is shown in table 18. These percentages 
were developed by multiplying the estimated quantity of 
each potash product produced over the life of the mine and 
using the January 1984 price to estimate the revenues 
generated. The percent of revenues from each product was 
then calculated. 

Table 18 shows that 86 pet of the revenues estimated 
to be generated by potash products from the 68 mines and 
deposits included in this analysis would be generated by 
muriate of potash. Some areas shown, such as Utah and 
Europe, are projected to generate significant revenues from 
potassium sulfate but, overall, sulfate is expected to account 
for only 10 pet of the revenue. Potash products other than 
60 pet K 2 muriate and potassium sulfate contribute 41 pet 
of the revenue of FRG potash operations. 

Based on the MAP methodology, all capital investments 
incurred earlier than 15 yr before the initial year of the 
analysis 'January 1984) are treated as sunk costs. Capital 



16 



Table 17.— Market prices per metric ton for selected potassium 
products and related minerals for January 1984, f.o.b. mill 



Commodity 



Potash products: 
Muriate, coarse 

Do 

Muriate 

Do 

Sulfate 

Do 

Potassium-magnesium 

sulfate. 

Manure salt 

Korn kali 

Patent kali 

Kali magnesia 

Thomas kali 

Raw salts 

Magnesia kainit 



Other products: 

Table salt 

Sodium sulfate 

Bromine 

Epsom salt 

Kieserite 

Magnesium chloride 

Do 

Magnesium chloride 

solution. 



Where applicable 



United States, Carlsbad 

Canada, Saskatchewan 

Federal Republic of Germany 2 

. . .do* 

United States 

Federal Republic of Germany 2 
United States 



... do 

Federal Republic Germany 2 

. . do 2 

. . do 2 

. . do 2 

do 2 

..do 2 



United States 

... do 

Federal Republic of Germany 2 

... do 

... do 

United States 

Federal Republic of Germany 2 
... do 



Grade, 
wt pet K 2 



Price, 
$/mt 



62 


175.52 


62 


'68.90 


50 


106.50 


40 


82.40 


50 


181.00 


50 


146.00 


22 


65.00 


19 


e 20.00 


40 


99.82 


32 


141.27 


28 


141.27 


18 


e 80.00 


19 


e 40.00 


12 


46.34 


NA 


50.00 


NA 


99.20 


NA 


727.00 


NA 


52.00 


NA 


52.00 


NA 


64.00 


NA 


64.00 


NA 


25.00 



e Estimated. NA Not available. 

'Based on prices published by Green Markets, January 9, 1984. 

2 Prices include the cost of delivery in the Federal Republic of Germany and are not f.o.b. mill prices. 

Sources: Private communication from Kali und Salz, Federal Republic of Germany, and estimated by authors, and from 
references 17 and 18. 



Table 18. — Distribution of revenues received by potash 
operations at January 1984 market prices, percent 



Area 


Number 


Muriate 


Sulfate 


Other' 


United States: 
New Mexico 


10 
3 


63 
1 


12 
99 


25 


Utah 


( 2 ) 


Total or average 


13 


20 


72 


8 


Canada 


28 


100 








Europe: 
Federal Republic of Germany 
Other Europe 3 

Dead Sea 


8 

13 

2 

4 


30 

56 

100 

88 


29 
44 

12 


41 




Other" 





Total or average 


68 


86 


10 


4 



'Includes potassium-magnesium sulfate and manure salt in the United States 
and many potash products other than 60 pet K 2 muriate and potassium sulfate 
in the Federal Republic of Germany. 

2 Less than 0.5 pet. 

includes operations in France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. 

"Includes Brazil, Chile, and the Congo. 



investments incurred less than 15 yr before January 1984 
have the estimated undepreciated balance carried foward 
to January 1984, with all subsequent investments reported 
in constant January 1984 dollar terms. All reinvestment, 
operating, and transportation costs are expressed in 
January 1984 dollars. No escalation of either costs or prices 
was included because it was assumed that any increase in 
costs would be offset by an increase in market price of the 
commodities. 



The SAM contains a separate tax-records file for each 
State or nation which includes all the relevant tax 
parameters such as corporate income taxes, property taxes, 
royalties, severance taxes, or other taxes that pertain to the 
production of potash under which a mining firm would 
operate. These tax parameters are applied against each 
mineral deposit under evaluation with the implicit assump- 
tion that each deposit represents a separate corporate en- 
tity. Other charges considered in the analysis include stan- 
dard deductibles such as depreciation, depletion, deferred 
expenses, investment tax credits, and tax-loss carryfor- 
wards. The system also contains an additional file of 
economic indexes to allow for updating of all cost estimates 
to the base date (January 1984 for this study). 

Detailed cash-flow analyses are generated by the SAM 
for each preproduction and production year of an operation 
beginning with the initial year of the analysis. Upon com- 
pletion of the analyses for each mine and deposit, all prop- 
erties included in the study were simultaneously analyzed 
and aggregated into total and annual resource availabil- 
ity curves. The total resource availability curve is a tonnage- 
cost relationship that shows the total quantity of 
recoverable potash product potentially available at each 
operation's average total cost of production over the life of 
the mine, determined at the stipulated (15 pet) DCFROR. 
Thus, the curve is an aggregation of the total potential 
quantity of potash that could be produced over the entire 
producing life of each operation, ordered from operations 
with the lowest average total cost of production to those with 
the highest. The curve provides a concise, easy-to-read, 
graphic analysis of the comparative costs associated with 
any given level of potential output and provides an estimate 



17 



of what the average long-run price of potash (in January 
1984 dollars^ would likely have to be in order for a given 
tonnage to be potentially available to the marketplace. 
Costs reflect not only capital and operating costs, but also 
credit for byproducts, all pertinent taxation, and the cost 
of transporting the product to the nearest port or domest it- 
point of consumption. 

Annual curves are a disaggregation of the total curve 
to show annual potash availability at varying costs of pro- 
duction. Each curve represents a specific cost level. The 
horizontal axis represents time, either actual years for pro- 
ducers, or the number of years following the commencement 
of development for nonproducing operations. The vertical 
axis represents the annual production level based upon ag- 
gregation of the proposed capacities of each individual 
property. 

Certain assumptions are inherent in all the curves. 
First, all deposits produce at full operating capacity 
throughout the productive life of the deposit. Second, each 
operation is able to sell all of its byproducts at the stipulated 
prices and all of its primary product at a price sufficient 
to generate total revenues equal to or greater than its 
average total production cost. Third, development of each 
nonproducing deposit began in the same base year (N) 
• unless the property was developing at the time of the 
evaluation i. Since it is difficult to predict when the explored 
deposits are going to be developed, this assumption was 
necessary in order to illustrate the maximum potential 
availability with a minimum lag time. It is doubtful, 
however, that this potential would be reached in the short 
term since it is unlikely all new producers would start 
preproduction in the same year. The preproduction period 
allows for only the minimum engineering and construction 
period necessary to initiate production under the proposed 
development plan. Consequently, the additional time lags 
and potential costs involved in filing environmental impact 



statements, receiving required permits, financing, etc., have 
been minimized in the individual deposit analyses. 

For this study, separate discussions and analyses were 
performed for each potassium product (potassium muriate, 
potassium sulfate, and potassium-magnesium sulfate) in 
order to correctly represent the availability of potash. 



TOTAL AVAILABILITY 
Muriate of Potash 

Sixty-one properties analyzed in this study produce or 
are proposed to produce muriate of potash (KC1). They could 
recover 5,512 million mt muriate of potash with a minimum 
grade of 60 pet K 2 0, containing 3,400 million mt K 2 
equivalents (table 19, fig. 8). These resources were generally 
the only product that would potentially be produced at these 
operations although a small number of operations recover 
or could recover other potassium and nonpotassium 
minerals. 

The table shows 4,848 million mt potentially 
recoverable from properties in Canada. This is 88 pet of the 



Table 19. — Total estimated recoverable muriate of potash, 

60 pet K 2 0, in 1984, million metric tons 

Country Producing Nonproducing T . 

or region mines deposits 

United States 84 17 101 

Canada 2,596 2,252 4,848 

Western Europe and the 

Dead Sea 458 458 

Brazil, Chile, and 

the Congo 105 105 

Total 3,138 2,374 5,512 



United Stotes 
2 pet 



Others 
2 pet 



Western Europe 

and Dead Seo 

8 pet 




United States 
3 pet 




All deposits, 5.5 x I0 9 mt Producing deposits, 3. 1 X I0 9 mt 

Figure 8— Estimated potentially recoverable muriate of potash, 60 pet K 2 0, associated with analyzed deposits. 



18 



total potentially recoverable muriate from all properties 
analyzed in this study. Producing mines located in Europe 
and near the Dead Sea (Israel and Jordan), could recover 
458 million mt of KC1 which is more than 8 pet of the total. 
Recoverable KC1 in the United States was 101 million mt, 
only 2 pet of the total and KC1 potentially recoverable from 
nonproducing deposits located in Chile, Brazil, and the 
Congo was 105 million mt, also 2 pet of the total. 

Figure 9 shows the total muriate cost-tonnage relation- 
ships for all mines and deposits in market economy coun- 
tries included in this analysis. This figure illustrates the 
tonnage of KC1 that could be recovered and shipped to a 
port or domestic market at costs less than $250/mt, these 
costs include a 15-pct rate of return on invested capital. 
More than 4 billion mt of muriate could be potentially 
recovered at costs less than $250/mt and more than 3 billion 
mt of muriate could be potentially recovered at costs less 
than $110/mt. At $80/mt, approximately 1.4 billion mt of 
muriate could be potentially recovered, which is only 25 pet 
of the total muriate potentially recoverable from properties 
included in this study. A closer analysis will be presented 
of key countries producing muriate and relating the cost 
of production to the appropriate price of potash for that area. 
The total muriate cost-tonnage relationships for producing 
and nonproducing operations in Canada are both shown in 
figure 10. 

The January 1984 price, f.o.b. Saskatchewan, was ap- 
proximately $69/mt for coarse muriate. The costs in figure 
10 include the cost of transporting the muriate product to 
a point of export. This transportation cost for each mine or 
deposit is based on where the product is exported. The 
weighted average cost per metric ton to a point of export 
is approximately $32 for producing operations and $29 for 
nonproducing operations. To compare the market price f.o.b. 
mill to the costs on the curve, the transportation cost must 
be added to the f.o.b. market price. The tonnage that could 
potentially be recovered from producing mines at a cost com- 
parable with the 1984 market price plus transportation, ap- 
proximately $110/mt product, would 2,555 million mt. This 
is more than 98 pet of the total tonnage that could poten- 
tially be recovered from Canadian producing mines and 
shows that producing mines in Canada are viable opera- 
tions. Approximately 37 pet, 955 million mt, could be 
recovered at costs less than $80/mt, which is significantly 
below 1984 market price. 

The total muriate cost-tonnage relationship for non- 
producing potash properties in Canada shows that almost 
1,000 million mt potassium muriate could potentially be 
recovered from nonproducing Canadian properties at costs 
plus transportation less than $250/mt. An additional 1,250 
million mt is potentially recoverable at costs greater than 
$250/mt, and is therefore not shown in figure 10 but is in- 
cluded in the total recoverable muriate in table 19. At costs 
less than the 1984 market price plus transportation, 
$110/mt, very little potash could be recovered from these 
nonproducing deposits. This implies that without increas- 
ed prices little incentive will exist for new production 
development of potash properties. 

Figure 11 shows the total muriate cost-tonnage relation- 
ship for all Canadian mines both with the costs f.o.b. mill 
and with cost including the transportation cost to the point 
of export. 




1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 

RECOVERABLE MURIATE, I0 9 mt 



Figure 9.— Muriate potentially recoverable from mines and 
deposits in market economy countries. 



Nonproducing deposits 




"■ Producing mines 



RECOVERABLE MURIATE, lO 9 mt 



Figure 10.— Muriate potentially recoverable from producing 
mines and nonproducing deposits in Canada. 



275 
250 
225 

200 



Costs fob port or morket 1 



/ 




RECOVERABLE MURIATE, I0 9 n 



Figure 11.— Muriate potentially recoverable from mines and 
deposits in Canada, related to both f.o.b. mill costs and to costs 
including transportation. 



19 



Potentially recoverable muriate for selected cost ranges 
for mines located in Europe or the Dead Sea area are shown 
in table 20. Eight of these mines are located in the Federal 
Republic of Germany (FRGl three in France, four in Spain, 
one in the United Kingdom, one in Jordan, and one in Israel. 
The latter two utilize the resources of the Dead Sea. All of 
the mines were producing operations in 1984. 

Table 20.— Potentially recoverable muriate per selected cost 

ranges for mines located in Europe or the Dead Sea area, 

million metric tons 



Cost range. USS/mt 



Quantity 
within Cumulative 
range quantity 



Less than S60 
$60 to less than $80 
$80 to less than S100 
$100 or more 
Total 



209 3 


209 3 


1837 


393 


39.8 


4328 


25.5 


458.3 



4583 



NAp 



NAp Not applicable 

Most of the mines located in the FRG produce additional 
potash products in addition to muriate, the revenues of these 
products were credited to the operation, but this tonnage 
represents only the muriate. These costs include the cost 
of transportation to port or market which averaged approx- 
imately S3 mt product. This table demonstrates that most 
of the potentially recoverable muriate is in the lower cost 
range. 

The total muriate cost-tonnage relationships for potash 
mines and deposits located in the United States are shown 
in figure 12. Most of these are producing operations. The 
table shows both the relationship including the cost of 
transportation to market and the relationship with costs 
f.o.b. mill. The transportation cost is the cost to transport 
the product by rail to a typical market in the United States. 
For mines in New Mexico, a midwestern market was used, 
with a transportation cost of $49 mt product shipped. 

At a cost less than $127 mt product (approximately the 
January 1984 market price of $76'mt product f.o.b. mill plus 
transportation costs), approximately 82 million mt product 
could potentially be recovered. This is close to the 84 million 
mt recoverable muriate of potash associated with produc- 
ing mines shown in table 19. This shows that mining opera- 
tions in the United States are viable at 1984 prices. At costs, 
including transportation, less than $100/mt, less than 18 
million mt is potentially recoverable. The total muriate cost- 



! 

— * 


K 

V 


- 

r - ' 

i 
i 


-»- 


Costs fab. port or mortei 




_____,- 


(-"' 


Cos's fob milk 




■- 

u 

-1 
— 

o 

•- 


i 


A 


i 







40 60 

RECOVERABLE MURIATE, lO'mt 



Figure 12— Muriate potentially recoverable from mines and 
deposits in the United States, related to both f.o.b. mill costs 
and to costs including transportation. 



tonnage relationship for the same mines, with the costs f.o.b. 
mill, illustrates the significance of transportation costs in 
the United States. 

Four other potential producers of muriate were included 
in this analysis. Two of these deposits are in Brazil, one in 
Chile, and one in the Congo. Approximately 105 million mt 
of muriate is potentially recoverable from these proposed 
mines. Most of this is associated with costs higher than 
those of current producers, although they would have a 
geographic advantage in their domestic markets. 

Potassium Sulfate 

The 11 properties analyzed in this study that produce 
or are proposed to produce potassium sulfate (K 2 S0 4 ) are 
estimated to have the potential to recover 261 million mt 
with a grade between 50 and 54 pet K 2 0, containing more 
than 130 million mt K 2 equivalents. Five of these proper- 
ties also produce muriate of potash as a product. The 
muriate from these operations was included in the analysis 
of the potentially recoverable muriate above. Table 21 
shows that producing operations account for 255 million mt, 
almost 98 pet of the 261 million mt potentially recoverable 
potassium sulfate. Analyses indicate that 252 million mt, 
almost 97 pet of the total, could be recovered at costs less 
than the January 1984 market price of $181/mt. 



Table 21.— Total estimated recoverable sulfate of potash 
(K 2 S0 4 ), million metric tons 

50 to 54 

United Fed< 
States of 

W 

W 

150 

W Withheld to avoid disclosing individual property confidential data; included 
in total. 



Potassium sulfate recoverable from four operations in 
the United States could potentially be 150 million mt, over 
57 pet of the total. These operations could produce 142 
million mt, 97 pet of the total, at costs less than the January 
1984 market price. A total of 111 million mt is potentially 
available from five mines in Sicily and two mines in the 
Federal Republic of Germany. Almost 100 pet of this was 
associated with costs less than $181, the price in the United 
States as of January 1984. 



Potassium-Magnesium Sulfate 

Four properties in New Mexico produce or could recover 
potassium-magnesium sufate from langbeinite ores. Three 
of these operations also recover or could recover muriate 
of potash. The muriate from these operations was included 
in the analyses in the "Muriate of Potash" section. 

These four properties could potentially recover 44 
million mt of potassium-magnesium sulfate with a K 2 
grade of near 22 pet, containing 10 million K 2 equivalents. 





50 to 54 pet K 2 






United 
States 


Italy and 

Federal Republic 

of Germany 


Total 


Producers 

Nonproducers 


W 

W 


W 
W 


255 
6 


Total 


150 


111 


261 



20 



Potassium-magnesium sulfate potentially recoverable at 
delivered costs less than $115/mt would potentially be 15.4 
million mt; $115/mt equals the January 1984 market price, 
$65/mt f.o.b. mill, plus a transportation cost of almost 
$50/mt. 

Miscellaneous Potash Products 

Mines located in the Federal Republic of Germany pro- 
duce other potassium compounds that range in grade from 
12 to 50 pet K 2 and sometimes contain magnesium or 
phosphate in addition to the potash. The revenues from 
these products were credited to the mines but were not in- 
cluded in separate cost-tonnage relationships because of 
their lack of homogenity and resulting wide range of market 
prices. 



ANNUAL AVAILABILITY 

Annual availability curves are disaggregations of the 
total resource-availability curves showing potential 
availability on an annual basis. Each curve represents a 
specific cost level. The horizontal axis represents time, 
either actual years for producers, or the number of years 
following the commencement of development for nonproduc- 
ing operations. The vertical axis represents the annual pro- 
duction level. Increases in annual output shown on the 
curves represent projected expansions or new deposits which 
come on line; decreases represent the depletion of the 
demonstrated resources of some deposits, which could be 
offset by new discoveries or new technologies. 

Muriate of Potash 

The annual availability curves for producing muriate 
operations in market economy countries are shown in figure 
13. Costs include the cost of transportation to port or 
domestic market. These curves increase during the 1980's, 
generally maintain their level until 1995, then begin to 
decline. An estimated 20 million mt of muriate was pro- 
duced in market economy countries during 1983. Demand 
for muriate in market economy countries has been 
estimated to be 36 million mt in 1990 and 47 million mt 
in 2000. Estimates of demand are based on Bureau of Mines 
demand forecasts (3). The curve representing the tonnage 
that could be recovered at costs less than $130/mt shows 
that 25 million mt of muriate of potash could have been pro- 
duced during 1984, it increases to the 30-million-mt level 
in 1992 and declines to just over 25 million mt in 2000. The 
curve representing the tonnage that could be recovered at 
costs less than $110 shows that over 22 million mt could 
have been produced during 1984, it increases to near the 
28-million-mt level in 1992 and declines to just over 23 
million mt in 2000. The curve representing the tonnage that 
could be recovered at costs less than $80 shows that over 
14 million mt could have been potentially produced during 
1984, it increases to over 18 million mt for the period from 
1990 to 1995, and declines to over 16 million mt in 2000. 
These curves demonstrate that the annual tonnage of 
recoverable muriate associated with costs less than $110/mt 
at producing mines is more than current consumption but 
not sufficient to meet projected demand in 1990 and 2000. 
Even the tonnage associated with costs less than $130/mt 
is not sufficient to meet projected demand in 1990 and 2000. 
The curves for producers located in specific geographic 



areas, such as Canada or the United States, shown later 
in this section, illustrate the situation in more detail and 
demonstrate the importance of Canadian annual produc- 
tion capacity. 

The annual availability curves for nonproducing 
muriate operations in market economy countries are shown 
in figure 14. These curves increase until the seventh year 
after the commencement of development then generally 
level off for the rest of the curve. The curve representing 
the tonnage that could be recovered at costs less than 
$250/mt increases to 18 million mt in the seventh year 
(N+7) after the commencement of development then levels 
off for the remainder of the curve. At costs less than 
$200/mt, tonnage would increase to near 8 million mt in 
the seventh year, then level off, while at $110, tonnage 
would approach 3 million mt in the fifth year before level- 
ing off. This figure demonstrates that the recovery of potash 
from operations not now in production would require much 
higher prices as an incentive to initiate production, and 
even with much higher prices, the recoverable muriate 
potentially available from both producing and nonproduc- 
ing operations would not quite meet projected demand. 

The annual availability curves for producing potash 
mines in Canada are shown in figure 15. The costs in this 
analysis include the cost of transportation to port or 
domestic market, which averages approximately $32/mt 
product. Both curves shown on this figure increase to their 
maximum level of production and can continue to produce 
at this level past 2000. This is because Canadian mines have 
vast resources and long lives. The increases in annual pro- 
duction shown by these curves reflect projected expansions 
in output that were built into the analyses of this report. 




I9S6 1968 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 



Figure 13. — Potential annual production of muriate from pro- 
ducing mines in market economy countries at various cost levels. 



I I 

N Year preproduction 
development begins 

I 
/ 
/ 

/ 
/ 


1 1 1 


1 1 

$250 


'' 


- 


/ 

/ 

/ 

/ 

/ 

/ 




$200 


/ 
/ 

/ .•■■ 
_,/■■" 




$110 


s'''^^' 






<ir-T^^' i 


i i t 


i i 



Figure 14. — Potential annual production of muriate from non- 
producing mines in market economy countries at various cost 
levels. 



21 



:: 


r 






£ 








O 






$110 








UJ 

IT 

O 


•*** 

• 

• 




- 


2 


-^ 






UJ 






s 


S i 

UJ 

u 


- '" 






I 








5 









Figure 15.— Potential annual production of muriate from pro- 
ducing mines in Canada at various cost levels. 







N 


1 
Yeor 
deve 


i i i i 

preproducrton 


i i 

$250 


ie 


opment begins ' r ~ 


" 










/ 




I M 


- 






r — ' 

1 

l 




u l2 


- 






1 




i- 

4 

K 10 

2 








1 

/ 
l 
/ 




3 « 

03 
4 
<r 6 








I 

/ 
1 
1 


$200 _ 


> 

O 
O 

UJ J 

It 


1 
\ 
I 




2 






S^-f 


^ (■■ 


$110 - 




■ 


1 1 



The curve representing the tonnage that could be 
recovered at costs less than $110<mt, which is approximately 
the 1984 Canadian f.o.b. price plus an average transporta- 
tion cost of $32 mt. increases from just over 12 million mt 
in 1984 to just over 17 million mt in 1991 and holds that 
level of production through 2000. At a cost of under $80/mt, 
the muriate tonnage that could be recovered in 1984 is 
almost 9 million mt and by 1990 it rises to near 11 million 
mt where it remains through 2000. Canada produced 10 
million mt of muriate in 1983 and exported more than 6 
million mt to the United States. 

In recent years Canada has exported nearly two-thirds 
of its production to the United States, and imports to the 
United States from Canada have been two-thirds of con- 
sumption. The U.S. demand for muriate in 1990 could be 
about 13 million mt. in 2000, 16 million mt. Two-thirds of 
this demand could be supplied by two-thirds of Canadian 
production at costs less than the January 1984 market price 
plus transportation, $110 mt. The tonnage that could be 
recovered at under $80 mt is almost sufficient to supply 
future demand from the United States. At costs less than 
$110 mt, Canada could produce enough muriate to satisfy 
all of the projected demand in the United States. 

The annual availability curves for nonproducing potash 
mines in Canada are shown in figure 16. The costs of pro- 
duction and transportation for most of these properties is 
significantly above 1984 market prices plus $29/mt for 
transportation. The price of potash would have to increase 
substantially for most of these proposed operations to 
generate the revenues necessary to cover their costs. The 
annual tonnage that could potentially be recovered at costs 
less than $250 mt is 16 million mt. The annual tonnage that 
could potentially be recovered at costs less than $200/mt 
is near 6 million mt. The annual tonnage that could poten- 
tially be recovered at costs less than $100/mt is over 1 
million mt from the third year through 2000. 

The annual muriate availability curves for mines in 
Europe and near the Dead Sea area are shown in figure 17. 
All these mines were in production at the time of this 
analysis. Costs include transportation to port or market 
which averages less than $5 mt product. Transportation 
costs are less than those for Canada or the United States 
because there is less distance to the port or market in these 
countries. An ocean freight rate has to be added to the costs 
on the curves to compare the costs to prices in the United 
States. A typical ocean freight from a Mediterranean port 
North American port is $14.25 U9). The January 1984 
price in the United States was $76 mt. 

All three curves in the figure show a projected increase 
in production in 1985, then are relatively constant until 
1995 when they start to decline. The curve representing thf- 



Figure 16.— Potential annual production of muriate from non- 
producing mines in Canada at various cost levels. 




Figure 17.— Potential annual production of muriate from pro- 
ducing mines in Europe and in the Dead Sea area at various cost 
levels. 



tonnage available at costs less than $100/mt projects that 
annual production could potentially be over 8 million mt 
in 1984, increasing to more than 9 million mt from 1985 
through 1994. Actual 1983 production was estimated to be 
less than 7 million mt. 

The curve representing the tonnage potentially 
available at costs of less than $80/mt is under 6 million mt 
in 1984, almost 7 million mt in 1986, increasing slightly 
to more than 7 million mt in 1990 and staying at that level 
until 1995 when it begins to decline. At costs less than 
$60/mt less than 4 million mt is available in 1984, increas- 
ing to over 4 million mt in 1985 and staying constant until 
it begins to decline in 1995. The declines are a result of the 
static nature of the resources included in this analysis. The 
demand for these resources will continue because of their 
low costs, but if new low-cost resources are not found, their 
output will decline. 

Annual muriate availability curves for mines produc- 
ing at the time of this analysis in the United States are 
shown in figure 18. The curve representing the tonnage 
available at costs less than $127/mt, the January 1984 price 
f.o.b. mill plus an average transportation cost of about 
$49/mt product, shows 2.8 million mt potentially 
recoverable from 1984 to 1988 when it begins to decline. 
It would be just under 2.0 million mt from 1990 to 1996; 
after 1997 it would be near 1.2 million mt. The tonnage 
potentially recoverable annually at costs less than $100/mt 
is almost 1.5 million mt from 1984 until 1989, it then 
declines to under 1 million mt until 1996 after which it 



22 



3.0 





^ 


' 


1" 1 


1 1 1 


E 2.5 


- 






\ 
\ 


- 


o 








\ 
\ 




£ 2.0 


- 






\ 


4 


< 










\ 


o: 










\ 












\$I27 

\ 












_j 

CO 










^^__ 


§ i.o 


- 








- 


> 

o 
u 

£ - 5 


- 






1 1 


\*ioo 




Figure 19.— Potential annual production of potassium sulfate 
from producing mines in market economy countries. 



Figure 18. — Potential annual production of muriate from pro- 
ducing mines in the United States at various cost levels. 



declines further. These declines are based on the assump- 
tion that all mines are operating at full capacity. If mines 
operate below full capacity, then the declines are delayed. 

Production of muriate was near 20 pet of apparent con- 
sumption of all potash in the United States in terms of con- 
tained K 2 in 1983, down from near 29 pet in 1982. Demand 
for potash is projected to increase 40 pet over apparent con- 
sumption in 1983 by 1990 and 75 pet by 2000. The annual 
tonnage of muriate potentially recoverable at costs less than 
$127/mt could supply 30 pet of the 1984 demand, 15 pet of 
the 1990 demand, and less than 8 pet of the demand in 2000. 
The tonnage potentially recoverable annually at costs less 
than $100 could supply 16 pet of 1984 demand and less than 
8 pet of the demand in 1990. These data show that resources 
associated with producing mines are not sufficient to main- 
tain the 1984 share of demand in the United States in the 
future. 

Annual production of muriate from the three nonproduc- 
ing deposits in the United States could potentially be 
850,000 mt, with average costs about over $180/mt, with 
costs less than $141/mt, they could produce 750,000 mt. This 
is not enough to replace the resources at the producing 
mines when they are depleted. This analysis demonstrates 
that unless new low-cost resources are discovered in the 
United States, the decline in the ratio of domestic produc- 
tion to domestic consumption will continue. This decline 
should not be a problem for consumers in the United States 
because Canadian resources have the potential to supply 
projected demand in the United States. 

Potassium Sulfate 

The annual availability curve for world potassium 
sulfate producers is illustrated in figure 19. It shows that 
at costs including transportation of less than $181/mt (the 



1984 price f.o.b. mill in the United States was $181/mt), 1.8 
million mt could be produced in 1984 and 1985. This is the 
amount produced in 1983. Production in 1986 could be just 
below that number, and from 1987 through 2000 produc- 
tion could remain fairly constant at 1.7 million mt. 

Annual production from the three nonproducing opera- 
tions could be approximately 300,000 mt with average costs 
more than double the January 1984 market price. These 
potential capacities are not sufficient to meet the projected 
world demand for potassium sulfate in 1990 and 2000 of 
over 2 million mt and 3 million mt, respectively. To supply 
the projected demand, annual capacity at existing deposits 
will have to be expanded. 

Annual production of potassium sulfate from producing 
mines in Italy could be above 500,000 mt from 1984 to 1986, 
then remain above 400,000 through 2000. Actual produc- 
tion in 1982 was approximately 240,000 mt. All Italian pro- 
ducers have costs below $181/mt. 

Annual production of potassium sulfate from producing 
mines in the United States is projected to remain above 
300,000 mt from 1984 through 2000. Production in 1983 
was more than 300,000 mt. The average cost for producers 
in the United States is significantly below $181/mt. 

Potassium-Magnesium Sulfate 

Production of potassium-magnesium sulfate and other 
minor potassium salts was under 700,000 mt in 1982. This 
was near the tonnage potentially recoverable annually from 
producing mines in 1984 and through 2000. However, the 
costs associated with this tonnage are above the January 
1984 market price of $65/mt. Annual availability of 
potassium-magnesium sulfate from nonproducers is pro- 
jected to be more than 1 million mt from the 4th year after 
the beginning of development until the 14th year. Together, 
producing and nonproducing operations could potentially 
recover annually almost 2 million mt. The average costs 
for the tonnage recoverable from both producers and non- 
producers is approximately $139/mt product. 



CONCLUSIONS 



Potassium is an important component of fertilizers re- 
quired to maintain the yields of the world agriculture in- 
dustry. This study evaluated 68 mines and deposits in 12 
market economy countries. Three additional deposits were 
not included in the detailed analysis; one contained no 
demonstrated resources and the other two produced potash 
only as a byproduct. Deposits were selected in order to in- 
clude demonstrated resources associated with at least 85 



pet of the production of potash in significant market 
economy countries, and to include the demonstrated 
resources associated with nonproducing deposits that were 
equal to those of producing mines and that could be mined 
and processed with current technology. 

Approximately 11.7 billion mt K 2 is contained in the 
mines and deposits evaluated in this study. These resources 
include 190 million mt in the United States (not including 



23 



Searles Lake or the Salton Sea, which contain an additional 
162 million mt>. 9.63 billion mt in Canada, approximately 
430 million mt in Western Europe (France, Federal 
Republic of Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United 
Kingdom*. 1.24 billion mt in the Middle East (Israel and 
Jordan', and over 220 million mt in other countries ( Brazil, 
Chile, and the Congo). 

Five and one-half billion metric tons of muriate of 
potash, containing 3.4 billion mt K 2 equivalents; 261 
million mt of potassium sulfate, containing more than 130 
million mt K,0 equivalents; and 44 million mt of potassium- 
magnesium sulfate, containing 10 million mt K 2 
equivalents, are potentially recoverable from the 68 mines 
and deposits analyzed in this study. Seventy-seven percent 
of the revenues from the operations included in this study 
would be from muriate. 16 pet from potassium sulfate, and 
7 pet from other products. More than 88 pet of the poten- 
tially recoverable muriate is in Canada; over 57 pet of the 
sulfate is in the United States, with the remainder in Italy 
and the Federal Republic of Germany. 

Estimates based on this analysis show that for all 
deposits included in this study, almost one-half of the total 
muriate of potash product, more than 3 billion mt, could 
be recovered at costs (including transportation) of less than 
$110 mt. At this price. 22 million mt could be potentially 
recovered annually from producing operations in 1984 (20 
million mt was produced in 1983). increasing to 28 million 
mt after planned expansions. However, analysis indicates 
that muriate prices exceeding $130 mt will be required to 
meet projected demand in 1990 or 2000. 

Canada was the largest market economy potash pro- 
ducer in 1983. Over 82 pet of the in situ K 2 equivalents 
associated with deposits included in this study are located 
in Canada. Muriate product potentially recoverable from 
Canadian deposits totals 4.8 billion mt, 2.6 billion mt of this 
could be recovered at costs less than $110'mt, the January 
1984 price f.o.b. mill plus an average transportation cost 
to the point of export. At costs including transportation of 
$80. 40 pet of the 2.6 billion could be recovered. At costs 
less than $110 mt. 12 million mt could be potentially 
recovered annually from producing operations in 1984, in- 
creasing to 17 million mt after projected expansions. At 
costs less than $80. 9 million mt is potentially recoverable 
in 1984. increasing to near 11 million mt by 1990 and stay- 
ing there through 2000. Costs associated with nonproducing 
mines in Canada are substantially higher than those for 
producers. ' 

More than 6 million mt of Canada's 1983 production of 
10 million mt was exported to the United States. It made 
up two-thirds of the potash consumed in the United States. 
The annual muriate recoverable at costs less than $110/mt 
is sufficient to supply two-thirds of U.S. consumption 
through 2000. 

Almost 460 million mt of muriate of potash could poten- 
tially be recovered from operations in Europe and near the 
Dead Sea. At a price of $80/mt, including an average 
transportation cost of less than $5 mt, more than 85 pet, 
393 million mt. could potentially be recovered. At this price, 
almost 6 million mt 'which is about equal to 1983 produc- 



tion), could be potentially recovered annually from produc- 
ing operations in 1984, increasing to almost 7 million mt 
after planned expansions. All operations in this area that 
wore included in the analysis were producing. 

More than 100 million mt of muriate of potash could 
potentially be recovered from operations in the United 
States. At $127/mt, the January 1984 price (including an 
average transportation cost of almost $50/mt), 82 million 
mt could potentially be recovered. At costs less than 
$100/mt, 18 million mt could be recovered. The annual ton- 
nage of muriate that could be recovered at costs less than 
$127/mt is 2.8 million mt from 1984 to 1989, after which 
it begins to decline. The annual tonnage that could be 
recovered at costs less than $100/mt is almost 1.5 million 
mt from 1984 to 1989 then begins to decline. 

The percent of consumption supplied by domestic pro- 
duction of muriate in the United States has been declin- 
ing, in 1983 it was about 20 pet, down from 29 pet in 1982. 
The annual tonnage potentially recoverable at costs less 
than $127/mt could supply 30 pet of the 1984 U.S. demand, 
15 pet of the projected 1990 demand, and less than 8 pet 
of the projected demand for 2000. The annual tonnage poten- 
tially recoverable at costs of $100/mt could only supply 16 
pet of the 1984 demand and 8 pet of the 1990 demand. These 
declines will have a significant impact on producers, but 
it is not necessarily a problem for consumers in the United 
States because Canadian resources have the potential to 
meet the projected increases in demand in the United 
States. Resources associated with the three nonproducing 
U.S. deposits included in this analysis are not large. 

Ninety-seven percent of the potassium sulfate, 252 
million mt, could be recovered at costs (including transpor- 
tation) of less than $181/mt, the January 1984 price. At this 
price, 1.8 million mt could be potentially recovered annually 
from producing operations in 1984. Potential annual 
recovery of sulfate declines gradually after 1984. With the 
capacity from nonproducing operations, it is not sufficient 
to meet projected demand. To meet future annual demand, 
either new resources will have to be discovered or annual 
capacity associated with resources at producing operations 
with large resources will have to be expanded. 

Almost 150 million mt of potassium sulfate could poten- 
tially be recovered from operations in the United States. 
Annually, more than 300,000 mt could be potentially 
recovered from producing operations in the United States, 
which is equivalent to the 1983 production. This tonnage 
is sufficent to meet the projected demand for potassium 
sulfate in the United States for 1990 and 2000 of 240,000 
mt and 300,000 mt, respectively. More sulfate capacity will 
have to be developed or the United States will consume all 
of its production instead of exporting it as it did in 1983. 

Canadian potash producers have large resources capable 
of meeting demand well into the future. Potash mining in 
the United States can continue, but at declining production 
rates. Overseas production from market economy countries 
can continue into the next century at near current produc- 
tion levels. Producing mines in Canada have large resources 
and can maintain production many years past 2000. 



24 



REFERENCES 



1. Searls, J.P. Potash. Ch. in Mineral Facts and Problems, 1980 
Edition. BuMines B 671, 1981, pp. 707-720. 

2. British Sulfur Corp. Ltd. (London). World Survey of Potash 
Resources. 3d ed., 1979, 138 pp. 

3. Searls; J.P. Potash. BuMines Mineral Commodity Profile, 
1983, 10 pp. 

4. Potash. Ch. in BuMines Minerals Yearbook 1983, v. 1, 

pp. 697-708. 

5. Potash. Ch. in BuMines Minerals Yearbook 1982, v. 1, 

pp. 689-699. 

6. Potash. Ch. in BuMines Minerals Yearbook 1981, v. 2, 

pp. 679-692. 

7. Keyes, W.F. Potash. Ch. in BuMines Minerals Yearbook 1973, 
v. 1, pp. 1051-1062. 

8. Lewis, R.W., and G.E. Tucker. Potash. Ch. in BuMines 
Minerals Yearbook 1962, v. 1, pp. 999-1012. 

9. Searls, J.P. Potash. Ch. in Mineral Facts and Problems, 1985 
Edition. BuMines B 675, 1985, pp. 617-633. 

10. U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Bureau of Mines. Principles 
of a Resource/Reserve Classification for Minerals. U.S. Geol. Surv. 
Circ. 831, 1980, 5 pp. 

11. Energy, Mines, and Resources, Canada. Potash, a Proposed 
Strategy. Miner. Bull. 194, 1982, p. 29. 

12. Fuzesy, A. Potash in Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan Energy 
and Mines, Rep. 181, 1982, 44 pp. 

13. Clement, G.K., Jr., R.L. Miller, P.A. Seibert, L. Avery, and 
H. Bennett. Capital and Operating Cost Estimating System Manual 
for Mining and Beneficiation of Metallic and Nonmetallic Minerals 
Except Fossil Fuels in the United States and Canada. BuMines 



Spec. Publ., 1981, 149 pp.; also available as— Capital and Operating 
Cost Estimating System Handbook. Mining and Beneficiation of 
Metallic and Nonmetallic Minerals Except Fossil Fuels in the 
United States and Canada (contract JO255026). BuMines OFR 
10-78, 1977, 382 pp., NTIS PB 277 348. 

14. Cox, J.L. The History and Future of Potash Production in 
the U.S. Paper in Proceedings, Raw Materials Conference of the 
International Fertilizer Industry Association (Palm Springs, CA, 
Sept. 1984). Int. Fertilizer Ind. Assoc, Paris, France, 1984, v. I, 
pp. 34-51. 

15. Davidoff, R.L. Supply Analysis Model (SAM): A Minerals 
Availability System Methodology. BuMines IC 8820, 1980, 45 pp. 

16. Stermole, F.J. Economic Evaluation and Investment Deci- 
sion Methods. Investment Evaluations Corp., Golden, CO, 1974, 
449 pp. 

17 . Chemical Marketing Reporter. Current Prices of Chemicals 
and Related Materials. V. 225, No. 1, Jan. 2, 1984. 

18. Green Markets. Jan. 9, 1984, p. 4. 

19. Industrial Minerals. Freights. No. 199, Apr. 1984, p. 75. 

20. Moulton, G.F., Jr. Compendium of Searles Lake Operation: 
Kerr-McGee Chemical Corp. Company pamphlet, 1980, 12 pp. 

21. Muffler, L.J. P. Active Metamporphism of Upper Sediments 
in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field. Geol. Soc. America Bull., v. 
80, No. 2, 1969, pp. 157-181. 

22. Helgesan, H.C. Geologic and Thermodynamic Characteristics 
of the Salton Sea Geothermal System. Am. J. Sci.,v. 266, 1968, p. 
127. 

23. British Sulfur Corp. Ltd. (London). World Survey of Potash 
Resources. 1965, p. 41. 



25 



APPENDIX.— GEOLOGY OF POTASH DEPOSITS EVALUATED 



Following is a discussion of the deposits that were 
evaluated as a part of this study. For every country, a brief 
geologic discussion is included. However, in certain coun- 
tries such as Canada where many mines are exploiting one 
geologic area, the geology and resources of that region are 
discussed. 



UNITED STATES 

New Mexico 

Potash deposits of the Permian Basin in New Mexico 
have been the major source of production in the United 
States since the mid-1930's. Sylvinite and langbeinite are 
both mined. Sylvinite is the primary ore. with an average 
grade near 18 pet K 2 0. The exploitable potash deposits are 
located in the Carlsbad district, in southeastern New Mex- 
ico, on the edge of the Delaware Basin, a sub-basin of the 
Permian Basin. The evaporites of the Delaware Basin are 
part of the extensive evaporites of the Ochoa Series, which 
covers an area roughly 420 by 350 km. The Ochoa Series 
contains three evaporite formations, the Castille Formation. 
which was deposited first, next is the Salado Formation, 
and on top of that was deposited the Rustler Formation. 
Together they are 1.300 m thick. The Salado Formation con- 
tains the McXutt potash zone. Most of the potash is in the 
form of polyhalite. with sylvite restricted to a small area. 
The McNutt potash zone ranges from 50 to 140 m thick in 
the Carlsbad district. It contains 11 ore zones, 5 of which 
have been exploited. 



Utah 



Great Basin 



The Great Basin includes the areas of the Great Salt 
Lake and the Great Salt Lake Desert. Lake Bonneville is 
the name of the last of a succession of Pleistocene lakes 
which, at its maximum extent, covered 51,800 km 2 and at 
its highest was about 300 m above the present level of its 
largest remnant, the Great Salt Lake. The Great Salt Lake 
lies in the eastern part of the area that was covered by Lake 
Bonneville. In 1957 a railroad causeway was constructed 
across the lake, dividing it into a north arm and a south 
arm. As a result the south arm receives most of the fresh 
water: and the north arm has become denser and more 
saline. Potash recovery from the north arm began in the 
mid-1960's. The percentage of mineral ions in the north 
arm. reported in 1979, is shown in table A-l. High levels 
of precipitation in the early 1980s have caused the lake 
level to rise, making the lake less saline. Because of the 
high level of the lake, the causeway was breached in August 
1984. making the north arm even less saline and resulting 

Table A-1 —Dissolved solids in the Great Salt Lake. 1979 (2). 
percent 



Na 

K 

Mg 

Ca 

Fe 



815 


CI 


58 


SO, 


92 


C0 3 


10 


SiO. 


P) 


NOj 



14.75 

1 78 

07 

P) 

06 



in a larger volume of brine needed to recover a given quan- 
tity of product. 

The Bonneville Salt Flats are on the western edge of 
the Great Salt Lake Desert. They were formed from the 
evaportion of an intermittent playa lake separated from the 
Great Salt Lake when the lake level dropped below 1,200 
m above sea level. The salt crust covers an area 380 km 2 
and is 1.5 m thick at its center. Below the salt crust are 
lacustrine and fluvial sediments, the upper 6 m of which 
make up an aquifer in which potash-rich brines circulate. 
The source of the potash in the brines is from incoming sur- 
face water or from dissolved solids derived from the host 
sediments. Table A-2 shows a chemical analysis of the solu- 
ble portion of the sediments reported in 1979 (2). 1 The salt 
crust also contains brine but this brine is not particularly 
potash rich. The first attempt to recover potash in 1919 was 
not successful. The current operation started in 1937. 



Table A-2.— Soluble portion of Bonneville Salt Flats 
sediments, 1979 (2), percent 



K 0.07 

Na 38.85 

Ca 1.20 



Paradox Basin 



Mg 0.10 

SO, 2.88 

CI 58.98 



Potash minerals occur in the evaporites of the Paradox 
Formation, a member of the Hermosa Group, in the Paradox 
Basin near Moab, UT. The Paradox Basin is a structural 
downwarp that has been extensively modified by uplifts and 
upwarping. Eleven evaporite layers contain potentially 
recoverable potash, several with K 2 content exceeding 30 
pet. The beds are extensively folded. At the Cane Creek 
Mine, the potash ranges near 1,000 m in depth, the sylvinite 
horizon is 3.4 m thick and contains 25 to 30 pet K 2 0. The 
Cane Creek Mine began production as an underground 
mine in 1964, it was converted to a solution mine between 
1970 and 1972, in 1972 production commenced at the solu- 
tion operation (2). 



California 



Searles Lake 



Searles Valley area in California, a part of the sonoran 
desert, was the site of several large lakes during the 
Pleistocene era. Searles Lake is the nearly desiccated rem- 
nant of a much larger lake which once formed part of the 
Owens River drainage system. The evaporite deposit of 
Searles Lake consists of alternating mud beds and brine- 
saturated salt beds (20). Brine from the Searles Lake is proc- 
essed at three plants to produce soda ash (Na 2 C0 3 ), borax 
(Na 2 B 4 7 ), potash (KC1), and salt cake (Na 2 S0 4 ). A typical 
Searles Lake brine analysis shows 4.3 pet K 2 0. Potash is 
produced only at the one plant, the Trona plant. The deposit 
contains about 61 million mt of K 2 0. Potash is only a 
byproduct, and as such the operation was not included in 
the primary potash availability analysis of this study. The 



'Less than 005 pet 



'Italic numbers in parentheses refer to items in the lilt of references 
preceding the appendix 



26 



resource is included in the resource discussion and produc- 
tion is included as part of total production in the United 
States. 

Salton Trough 

The Salton Trough in southern California is a 320-km- 
long depression. Within the Salton Trough, on the southeast 
shore of the Salton Sea is the Salton Sea geothermal system 
composed of Pleocene and Quaternary sediments of the Col- 
orado River Delta (21-22). There is little evidence of folding 
or faulting. The brine was originally Colorado River water 
that has been trapped in deltic sediments and became saline 
through countless cycles of evaporation (22). 

The Salton Sea known geothermal resource area in 
California was not included in the availability analysis 
because, as in the Searles Lake operations, potash would 
only be a byproduct. As of 1980, there were no leases in this 
area. The resource in situ is 6,273 million mt of brine with 
an average grade of 1.6 pet K 2 giving in situ K 2 of 100.8 
million t. 




Davidson 
Evaporite 



I si Red Beds 



Hubbord Evap, 



2d Red Beds 



Lower 
Souris River 



(Davidson 
Member) 



Dawson Bay 



Prairie 
Evaporite 



Winnipegosis 



Cycle 3 



Cycle 2 



Cycle I 

(Elk Point 
Group) 



Middle 
Devonian 



Figure A-1.— Columnar section showing Middle Devonian 
evaporite cycles. (Courtesy Saskatchewan Energy and Mines) 



CANADA 
Saskatchewan 

Canada has 81 pet of the potash resources of market 
economy countries included in this study. Although some 
potash exists on the east coast of New Brunswick, over 95 
pet of the resource in Canada is located in the southeastern 
corner of the Province of Saskatchewan. Demonstrated in 
situ resources in Canada total 9.63 billion mt K 2 0. 

Potash was unintentionally discovered in Saskatchewan 
in 1942 by oil companies that were conducting exploration 
in the area. It was another 10 yr before there was any ex- 
ploration to determine the potential of the potash resource. 
Once the potential was realized, another 10 yr passed before 
the first mine opened; the delay being attributed to shaft 
sinking problems. In 1983, 10 mines, 9 using conventional 
room and pillar and 1 using solution methods, produced a 
total of over 6 million mt K 2 0. 

Potash in Saskatchewan was deposited 400 million yr 
ago during the Devonian Period in the Prairie Evaporite 
Formation of the Elk Point Basin. During Middle Devonian 
times, three evaporitic cycles occurred (fig. A-1). The first 
cycle of deposition, sometimes known as the Elk Point 
Group, consists of the Ashern Formation Shales, Win- 
nepegosis carbonates, and Prairie Evaporite Formation. The 
Prairie Evaporite Formation contains the valued potash 
beds. The second cycle is solely composed of the Dawson Bay 
Formation and consists mostly of halite and the clay in- 
solubles of the second red beds. The third and final cycle 
denoted by the lower Souris River (Davidson Member) is 
also a halite formation separated from the Dawson Bay For- 
mation by the First Red Beds. 

The Prairie Evaporite Formation is generally horizon- 
tal with a slight dip to the southwest, the top of the forma- 
tion is encountered at 400 m below the surface north of the 
potash areas, and gradually dips to 3,000 m below the sur- 
face in Montana and North Dakota. The upper part of the 
Prairie Evaporite Formation contains the four groups of 
potash-bearing beds. Three of these groups, the Patience 



Lake Member, the Bell Plaine Member, and the Esterhazy 
Member, are currently exploited for potash. The fourth 
group, the White Bear Member, is small and not continuous, 
and is not currently exploited (fig. A-2). 

Of the four members, the Patience Lake Member is 
stratigraphically the shallowest. It extends east from the 
town of Unity, where its areal extent is the greatest, 
through Saskatoon where its thickness is at its maximum, 
21m, and to Yorkton where it thins out. The Patience Lake 
Member is unique in the fact that it has two separate ore 
zones. The upper zone has four to seven individual beds with 
average thicknesses of about 3 m, and average grade of 
about 25 pet K 2 0. The Vade, Cory, Patience Lake, Allan, 
and Central Canadian Potash Mines produce ore from this 
zone. The lower zone consists of five individual beds with 
average thicknesses of 6 m. The average grade for these 
beds is 20 pet K 2 0; however, the upper beds contain a slight- 
ly higher K 2 content. The Lanigan and Allan Mines ex- 
tract ore from the lower zone. 

The Belle Plaine Member underlies the Patience Lake 
Member and is separated by a 3- to 12-m zone of halite. 
Although the Belle Plaine is approximately equal to the 
Patience Lake Member in area, it is more consolidated when 
compared with the stringiness of the Patience Lake 
Member, and is found south of the Patience Lake Member. 

The White Bear Member underlies the Belle Plaine 
Member. It is a very small member located in the southeast 
corner of Saskatchewan and into Manitoba. The average 
thickness is about 7.5 m. Since the bulk of this member is 
located below the 1,000-m conventional mining limit, the 
White Bear Member is not presently considered for min- 
ing. However, a potential for solution mining exists for the 
future. 

The fourth and stratigraphically lowest member is the 
Esterhazy. The Esterhazy Member is found southeast of the 
Belle Plaine Member. It occurs in the southeast corner of 
Saskatchewan and has projections into Manitoba, Montana, 
and North Dakota. The member is about 2.4 m thick with 
an average K 2 content of about 25 pet. The Esterhazy 
Member is exploited exclusively in the southeast part of 



27 




Figure A-2.— Diagrammatic cross section through the Prairie Evaporite Formation in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. (Courtesy 
SasKatchewan Energy and Mines) 



Saskatchewan, by the Esterhazy K-l and K-2 Mines, the 
Rocanville Mine, and by two proposed mines, Bredenbury 
in Saskatchewan and McCauley in Manitoba. Figure A-3 
shows the areal extent of the Prairie Evaporite Formation: 
figure A-4 shows the location of operating potash mines. 
Mining potash in Saskatchewan, as described in the 
'"Mining -- section of this report, is a relatively simple opera- 
tion. However, some problems had to be overcome before 
profitable mining could be achieved. New shaft sinking 
technology had to be developed in order to go through a for- 
mation known as the Swan River or Blairmore. The Blair- 
more is Lower Cretaceous in age and is a part of the Mann- 
ville Group. It consists of very loose sands with clays and 
shales. But what makes it a mining problem is that it is 
a high-pressure, brine-bearing formation, the brine in some 
areas being under pressure of up to 475 psi. After about 10 
yr of research, a method was developed that enabled miners 
to freeze the water in the area around the location of the 
shaft and install a sleeve to keep out the water. This 
technology assisted in the development of these potash 
resources and high-capacity mining operations were soon 
in progress. 



Once mining began, the problem of salt horses was en- 
countered. Salt horses are basically a pocket of waste rock, 
usually halite, found in the potash bed. A salt horse is a 
problem because it not only interrupts the continuity of the 
deposit but also poses a roof stability problem in that area 
of the mine. 

Three types of salt horses have been defined in the 
region. One type of salt horse is the result of stream chan- 
nels cut into the salt bed. The potassium, which is very solu- 
ble, was removed and replaced with some gangue mineral. 
Another type is the result of a lowered water table. As the 
water table decreased, potassium was leached out of the ore 
body. In some cases, the thickness of the ore even decreased, 
the leached potassium being replaced by sodium chloride. 

The third and possibly the worst type of salt horse is 
caused by voids created underneath the ore body. High 
pressure from the overlying rock then causes the upper beds 
to collapse. Some operations have encountered shale and 
limestone breccia cemented with halite. This brecciated 
material, when mined, poses a roof stability problem, 
resulting in special roof support requirements. 



28 




Figure A-3.— Isopach map of the Prairie Evaporite Formation in the Elk Point Basin. (Courtesy Saskatchewan Energy and Mines) 



New Brunswick Potash 



CHILE 



In an exploratory drilling program conducted by the 
New Brunswick Government, potash was discovered in 
three salt domes, all of which are in the Windsor Group of 
the Moncton Basin. Two of the domes, one near Salt Springs 
and another near Sussex, each indicated a single bed con- 
taining a high grade of sylvite. Potash Co. of America 
developed a mine near Sussex that started up in 1983. In- 
ternational Minerals and Chemicals (IMC) originally ex- 
plored the Salt Springs area, but in 1984 Denison Potash 
Mines was developing a mine there. The third salt dome, 
located by Millstream, was being explored during 1984 by 
BP Canada. 



Within the Salar de Atacama desert in northern Chile 
is a dry-lake-bed brine deposit thought to be of adequate 
size and grade to support commercial exploitation. Other 
areas in the region, such as Salar el Miraje, approximately 
175 km northwest of the Salar de Atacama and Salar de 
Bello Vista, approximately 200 km north of Salar el Miraje, 
show some promise of containing marketable potash. 
However, none are as promising as the Salar de Atacama. 

The Salar de Atacama is a closed basin system that 
receives runoff from a small area of the Andes and from 
secondary ranges surrounding the basin, as well as from 



29 




OTRY Saskatoon PAT |ENCE LAKE 

Icominco A ( *■ 

^ # 1 Colonsay 

# Vonscoy ALLAN** * ^CCP 

Allan 



LANIGAN 
A • 

Lanigan 




.Wadena 



Quill 
Lakes 




Yorkron 



Moose Jaw 



-.KALIUM Refl ina 
•Belle Plame 



k-i Langenburg 
A K-2 
Esterhazy 



ROCANVILLE 
Rocaflville 



LEGEND 
• City or town 
a Mine 



MAP LOCATION 






I ■ ■ 



50 

I 



Scale, km 



100 

_l 



NORTH AMERICA 

Figure A-4.— Location map, potash mines in Saskatchewan. 



springs. The depression, which contains the Salar, is par- 
tially filled with clastic sediments and evaporites. The 
origin of this deposit is attributed to the capillary concen- 
tration of highly soluble salts. The water-saturated basins 
receive the erosion products of the surrounding mountains, 
which contain high amounts of sodium and potassium. The 
solution evaporates causing the minerals to precipitate. The 
more soluble salts are being carried farther upwards 
through the soil before precipitating. The potential potash 
minerals for exploitation are contained in these circulating 
brines, which occur approximately 30 m below the surface. 
The Salar extends over an area of 3,000 km 2 . The cen- 
tral nucleus of the Salar is a massive halite evaporite body 
extending over 1.400 km 2 and to a depth of 30 m and con- 
taining in its interstices a brine particularly rich in 
potassium and lithium values. Corporacion de Fomento de 
la Produccio'n 'CORFOi is currently contracting for 
engineering design services to proceed with development 
of a facility to recover 500.000 mt vr KC1 product and 
150.000 mt yr K,SQ 4 product. 



BRAZIL 

There were two distinct potash-bearing deposits in 
Brazil that were being developed in 1982. They are the 
Taquari-Vassouras prospect in the Sergipe Basin and the 
Fazendinha claim in the Amazon Basin. 

The Sergipe Basin is a long narrow strip of coastline 
and continental shelf. It is different from most other potash 
deposits in that it contains abundant amounts of 
tachyhydrite (2MgCl 2 CaCl 2 12H 2 0), a mineral that only 
forms from brines that are rich in calcium. These features 
are also apparent in evaporites of the Congo and Gabon 
Basins in western Africa. It is believed that the initial split- 
ting of South America from Africa during Jurassic times 
resulted in a structural situation, similar to that of the Red 
Sea splitting during the Miocene, in which evaporites were 
able to form. During the separation of the two continents, 
calcium-rich brines were introduced from the ocean floor, 
which is now the Atlantic Ocean, and made the formation 
of tachyhydrite possible. 



30 



Tachyhydrite is highly hygroscopic and has low 
mechanical strength. Contact with the atmosphere during 
mining must be avoided to prevent swelling of the 
tachyhydrite layers. Studies to assess the safe mining 
distance from this bed are currently being conducted. 

The Sergipe Basin is 150 km long by 30 km wide. There 
are two sylvinite beds separated by a layer of halite within 
a Cretaceous Age sedimentary formation in the Sergipe 
Basin. Sergipe sylvinite is abnormally low in bromine and 
high in rubidium compared with primary sylvinite and is 
thought to have been derived by leaching from carnellite. 
It is uncertain whether the lower sylvinite bed will be mined 
or not because of its proximity to tachyhydrite. Both 
sylvinite layers have a minable thickness ranging from 2 
to 10 m. The depth to the top layer is 460 m. 

The Permian evaporites of the Amazon Basin represent 
a regressive evaporite sequence. Underlying the thick layer- 
ing of anhydrite and rock salt is upper carboniferous marine 
limestone and sandstones; above is Upper Permian to Lower 
Triassic red shales deposited in a continental-lagostrine en- 
vironment. A retreating sea proceeded from open marine 
conditions ultimately to the formation of lagoonal condi- 
tions, then isolated lakes. The formation of these lakes fi- 
nally led to brine of sufficiently high concentration to 
precipitate high-bromine halite, then KC1 as sylvite. 



CONGO 

A series of connected sedimentary basins stretches 
across the west African coast from Angola to Gabon. The 
basin zone is about 5 to 20 km wide. The two northern 
basins, the Gabon and the Congo, are related and probably 
have the same origin as the Sergipe evaporite basin in 
Brazil. 

In terms of potash resources, the Congo Basin is of more 
importance than the Gabon Basin because of the well- 
developed salt strata that the Congo Basin contains. Ten 
evaporite deposition cycles exist in the Congo Basin and 
are numbered I to X, starting with the deepest cycle. Each 
cycle represents a period of deposition and evaporation that 
occurred during Cretaceous times as the area alternated 
between marine and continental environments. The potash- 
bearing beds occur above the halite and the entire sequence 
is overlain with bisschofite and tachyhydrite. 

Sylvite and sylvinite ores were formed by the leaching 
of magnesium chloride from carnallite and are, therefore, 
irregular in occurrence. Deposits tend to be tabular, and 
extensive and can contain carnallite lenses. 

The Holle (St. Paul) potash deposit of the Congo Basin 
contains some of the world's highest grade potash ore, part 
averaged 35 pet K 2 0. However, when it was mined between 
1969 and 1977 it showed a loss because of the carnallite 
pockets that were encountered. Results of a feasibility study 
that was conducted suggested that profits could be achieved 
if carnallite was also mined. In the summer of 1977, while 
boring a carnallite trial gallery, an aquifer was punctured 
and within 36 h the mine was completely flooded. In recent 
years, feasibility studies have been conducted to determine 
the possibility of exploiting the resource by conventional 
mining methods, after pumping out the water, or by solu- 
tion mining. In any event, it appears as though a few years 
will pass before production from the remaining resources 
at Holle (St. Paul) will be realized. 



ISRAEL AND JORDAN 

The Dead Sea is situated in the lowest part of the Jor- 
dan Valley, formed by two massive parallel sets of faults, 
which is a part of the East African rift. The part of the rift 
that contains the Dead Sea represents a fault graben that 
stretches 1,100 km from southern Turkey in the north to 
the Gulf of Aquaba in the south and ranges from 5 to 20 
km in width. The graben was formed during Oligocene 
times and experienced ingressions of the Mediterranean 
Sea. At present, about two-thirds of the dissolved salts in 
the Dead Sea are the result of residual brines of the 
Pleistocene evaporation cycle and about one-third are from 
the Jordan River, underground springs, and wadis 
(streams). 

Both Israel and Jordan share in exploiting the Dead Sea 
resource. The area south of the Lisan Peninsula now con- 
tains solar evaporation pans for Israel's Dead Sea Works 
operations and Jordan's Arab Potash Mine. Dikes of the two 
sets of evaporation pans are separated by a distance of 500 
m. Effluent streams from the two plants flow down a chan- 
nel between the dikes along the truce line between Israel 
and Jordan, and then drain into the Dead Sea. 

The Dead Sea now has a specific gravity of 1.2 kg/L and 
is almost completely saturated with sodium chloride. 
Estimated quantities of salts in solution are shown in table 
A-3. 

Table A-3.— Estimated quantities of dissolved solids in the 
Dead Sea (23), billion metric tons 

Potassium chloride (KCI) 2.0 

Sodium chloride (NaCI) 12.0 

Magnesium chloride (MgCI 2 ) 22.0 

Calcium chloride (CaCI 2 ) 6.0 

Magnesium bromide (MgBr 2 ) 1 .0 

Calcium sulfate (CaS0 4 ) 1 

ITALY 

In Sicily, the upper Miocene evaporitic Solfifera Series 
of the central Sicilian Basin or Caltanissetta Trough, which 
appears in all of the Mediterranean basin, is made up of 
limestone, salt, and clay. It overlies the upper Tortorian For- 
mation and underlies calcareous marls of lower Pliocene 
age. The similarity of strata throughout the island provides 
reason to believe that the whole evaporative sequence 
formed in a continuous sedimentation basin and that it was 
later fragmented by tectonic events. The salt formations 
have been classified into four sedimentary cycles of 
deposition. 

The first cycle is made up of rock salt (NaCI) with in- 
terbedded layers of anhydrite and polyhalite. The entire 
cycle has a thickness of about 100 m. The upper 50 m of 
this cycle consists of a layer of salt that is about 99 pet NaCI. 

The second evaporative cycle is most important in terms 
of potash resource. The cycle, which is about 200 m thick, 
is composed of rock salt with layers of anhydrite, polyhalite, 
and kainite beds. Kainite is the mineral recovered for its 
K 2 value. 

The third evaporative cycle is about 100 m thick and 
consists of rock salt with layers of anhydrite. Although it 
is mined at Realmonte, Racalmoto, and Cattolica Eraclea, 
it has a very low assay value and is not considered 
important. 



31 



The fourth and most recent evaporative cycle is of least 
importance. The 50-m-thick bed consists of rock salt with 
intercalated layers of anhydrite with a low average grade 
(about 90 pet XaCb making it undesirable for mining 
potash. 

The entire Sicilian salt mineralization forms a belt that 
extends 550 km northeast-southwest from Nicosia to Sciacca 
and widens along the southern Sicilian coast from Sciacca 
to Porto Empedocle. 



SPAIN 

The three major evaporate sequences of the Iberian 
Peninsula occurred in the Triassic and Tertian - periods with 
the Tertiary being of the greatest economic importance. 
These Spanish deposits are only 45 million yr old and 
therefore quite recent when compared with those of Canada 
or the Federal Republic of Germany. The two Spanish 
potash regions are at the opposite ends of a single large 
depression that corresponds to the present-day Ebro Valley. 
Evaporite exists throughout the region and at its extremes 
are the Catalonia and Navarra potash occurrences. Suria, 
Cardona. and Llobregat are in the Catalonia side and 
Esparaza is in the Navarra side. 

The sedimentary stratigraphy is similar at either end. 
From the bottom layers to the top, it is described as 
limestones and anhydrite, salt, sylvinite seams, alternating 
layers of carnallite, and younger salt, marls, and a roof of 
sandstone. The sylvinite is 2 to 5 m thick with occasional 
maximum thicknesses of up to 8 m, but the most common 
is 2 m. Carnallite is typically 1 to 4 m thick, averaging 2.5 
m. The potash occurrences are commonly encountered at 
depths of about 500 m but vary in depth from site to site. 

The potash seams at Esparza and Llobregat have re- 
mained relatively undisturbed geologically, and dip at an 
angle of approximately 5 = to the northeast. There are two 
sylvinite beds that are separated by a 2-m-thick bed of rock 
salt. 

At Cardona. the potash seam has been subjected to 
severe folding resulting in a bubblelike shape with dips of 
70 to near vertical; the tabular ore body is contained within 
a hill that is 3.5 km long by 1.5 km wide by over 1,600 m 
high. 

The deposit at Suria has been subjected to postdeposi- 
tional folding and lack the areal uniformity characteristic 
of deposits such as those in Saskatchewan, Canada. There 
are four potash seams in this area. Only the deepest, seams 
A and B. are currently being mined. 



FRANCE 

France is currently exploiting potash resources from the 
Rhine graben of the upper Rhine River Valley. The Rhine 
graben is a narrow depositional valley that stretches north- 
south along the French side of the French-German border. 

During the Eocene, the Rhine rift started to subside, 
taking the Rhine graben with it. The valley was then 
flooded with water from the Mediterranean Sea and a 
lagoonal environment was set. This environment provided 
a setting for the first saline precipitation, which included 
»0-m series of halite, anhydrite beds with calcareous 
and dolomitic marls. During the early Oligocene, a second 



saline precipitation period occurred. This series allowed the 
formation of the potash beds that are mined today. 

Subsidence of the Rhine rift continued into the Pliocene 
when late alpine folding formed north-south trending flex- 
ures, which separate the potash resources. These deposits 
were discovered in 1904 and have been exploited since 1910. 



THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY 

During the Permian period, a large depositional basin, 
known today as the Zechstein Basin, existed in north- 
western Europe. The basin stretched from northern Britain 
across the North Sea to the Netherlands through Germany 
and into Poland. The Zechstein was a shallow-shelf sea. The 
deepest part was around the Elbe River in Germany and 
extended into the North Sea. 

The Zechstein Basin, which makes up most of the rocks 
of the Permian Age in Northern Europe, is divided into four 
evaporite cycles. Each cycle follows the same basic pattern 
and is described as having fine clastic sediments (rot- 
liegendes) known for their red color, carbonate rock, 
anhydrite, halite, sylvite, anhydrite, and carbonate layers. 
The carbonate layers are the best developed and therefore 
are used to define the boundaries of the Zechstein Basin 
throughout northwestern Europe including the United 
Kingdom, Federal Republic of Germany, German Demo- 
cratic Republic, the Netherlands, and Poland. Although all 
the potash in northwest Europe is in the Zechstein Basin, 
each area that is currently being mined has small dif- 
ferences which will be discussed separately. 

In the Federal Republic of Germany, potassium and 
magnesium salts were deposited during supersaline stages 
of evaporite cycles. Four cycles containing five potash 
members have been identified in this region. In the southern 
Werra-Fulda district, deposition was short lived when com- 
pared with deposition in the northern lower-Saxony district. 
In the south only the Werra Series was deposited, whereas 
in the north the entire succession is present. 

The great thickness of low-density evaporites in the 
lower Saxony district has caused extensive folding. Conse- 
quently, the potash deposits are usually steeply dipping and 
thickness varies greatly over short distances. Mining has 
occurred at depths ranging between 200 and 1,000 m. 

In the Werra-Fulda district, ore thickness and depth to 
ore are relatively uniform, 2.5 to 3.5 m and approximately 
500 m, respectively. The Hessen seam is mined at each of 
the three operating southern mines (Wintershall, Neuoff- 
Elers, and Hattorf), for both potash and kieserite. 

Potash has been mined from the Zechstein Basin since 
the late 19th century. The Zechstein Basin became a major 
potash supplier in the early 20th century. Today, although 
still important, resources from Zechstein Basin have taken 
a secondary position to the more plentiful resources of 
Canada and other major producers. 



UNITED KINGDOM 

Three evaporite deposits are present in the Cleveland 
and North Yorkshire regions. At the Boulby Mine, potash 
beds are intersected at a depth of about 1,100 m. A rock 
salt layer contacts the base of the potash zone. This con- 
tact is relatively planar. However, the upper transition zone 



VJb'7 bOl 



32 



contact is substantially more irregular and material above 
the transition zone is very weak. The carnallite marl con- 
sists primarily of halite and dehydrated clay minerals with 
negligible cementation and low structural strength. These 
factors contribute to roof stability problems. 

THAILAND 

Potash was first discovered in Thailand in 1973 when 
the Thailand Department of Mineral Resources, while ex- 
ploring for water, drilled into a thick section of almost pure 
carnallite. An extensive drilling program, which followed, 
defined the Khorat Plateau as having potential potash 
resources equal to or greater than those of Saskatchewan, 
Canada. There are no demonstrated resources of sylvite, and 
carnallite is not currently considered potash ore. 



The plateau consists of three evaporite zones. From 
north to south, they are the Sakon Nakhon Basin, the Phu- 
Phan anticlinorium, and the Khorat Basin. Each zone has 
three evaporite units named Upper Salt, Middle Salt, and 
Lower Salt. So far exploration has found potash only in the 
Lower Salt unit. 

Potash resources in the Khorat Plateau are mostly in 
the form of carnallite. Sylvinite deposits are usually small 
lenses and are not workable. Larger sylvinite deposits such 
as those near the cities of Khon Kaen, Udon Thani, and 
Wanon Niwat have not been explored in great enough detail 
to determine if they can be economically mined. There is 
a lack of detailed information on resource tonnages; 
however, there are indications that this area could prove 
to be a major future producer of potash. 



ft U.S.G.P.O.: 1986- 162-277/50650 



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